Will Chung Tung-chin win the next Miaoli County Magistrate election?
Gotcha risk
Low0 of 4 factors flagged
Watch for: The rules clearly specify that resolution tracks which candidate wins the Miaoli County Magistrate seat in the November 28, 2026 Taiwanese local elections.
Read the full assessment
The rules clearly specify that resolution tracks which candidate wins the Miaoli County Magistrate seat in the November 28, 2026 Taiwanese local elections. Interim or placeholder appointments prior to the election are explicitly excluded. The resolution mechanism relies on consensus reporting with a clear fallback to official results from Taiwan's Central Election Commission. A reasonable longstop date of June 30, 2027 is provided if the election outcome remains unknown.
- Resolver
- Low
- Timing
- Low
- Wording
- Low
- Exceptions
- Low
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
Current price
94%
chance▼ −1.45 pts · 24h
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
Taiwanese local elections are scheduled to be held on November 28, 2026. This market will resolve according to the candidate who becomes the next Magistrate of Miaoli County as a result of this election. Temporary, interim, or placeholder Magistrates appointed before the election will not be considered. If the result of this election isn't known, or no candidate has been elected, by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the results of the elections as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Taiwanese government, specifically the Central Election Commission (https://db.cec.gov.tw/).
Market explained
This market measures whether Chung Tung-chin will win the next Miaoli County Magistrate election scheduled for November 28, 2026.
How it resolves
The market resolves to Yes if Chung Tung-chin becomes the next Magistrate of Miaoli County as a result of the November 28, 2026 election, with temporary, interim, or placeholder appointments made before the election excluded. The market resolves to No if another candidate becomes the next Magistrate. The market resolves to Other if the election result is not known or no candidate has been elected by June 30, 2027, at 11:59 PM ET. The resolution source is a consensus of credible reporting, with ambiguity resolved solely by the Central Election Commission of the Taiwanese government.
Resolution source
Consensus of credible reporting, with fallback to the Central Election Commission of Taiwan
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·