Will Chuang Ching-cheng win the next Hsinchu City Mayor election?
Current price
13.65¢
+2.6¢ · 24h
Implied probability 13.65%
$2.6K total volume · YES/NO
Low gotcha risk
Gotcha risk — resolution-rule assessment
Show less
This market clearly specifies the criteria for resolution, focusing on the candidate who becomes the next Mayor of Hsinchu City resulting from the scheduled November 28, 2026 election. It explicitly excludes temporary, interim, or placeholder appointments made before the vote. Resolution is tied to consensus reporting with a clear, authoritative fallback directly to the official Central Election Commission database if any ambiguity arises. A generous long-stop date of June 30, 2027 resolves the market to Other if no candidate is officially elected or known by that time, leaving minimal room for subjective dispute.
- Wording ambiguity
- Low
- Source discretion
- Low
- Timing risk
- Low
- Exceptional clauses
- Low
Liquidity
Moderate book at the daily check: a spread over 1¢, or less than $50K within 5¢ of the mid. Larger orders may move the price, so check the book before sizing.
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
Taiwanese local elections are scheduled to be held on November 28, 2026. This market will resolve according to the candidate who becomes the next Mayor of Hsinchu City as a result of this election. Temporary, interim, or placeholder Mayors appointed before the election will not be considered. If the result of this election isn't known, or no candidate has been elected, by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the results of the elections as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Taiwanese government, specifically the Central Election Commission (https://db.cec.gov.tw/).
Rules history
Rules history is not displayed yet.
Market explained
This market measures whether Chuang Ching-cheng will win the next Hsinchu City Mayoral election scheduled for November 28, 2026.
How it resolves
The market resolves to Yes if Chuang Ching-cheng becomes the next Mayor of Hsinchu City as a result of the November 28, 2026 election. Temporary, interim, or placeholder Mayors appointed before the election will not be considered. The market resolves to No if another candidate wins the election. The market resolves to Other if the election result is not known or no candidate has been elected by June 30, 2027, at 11:59 PM ET. Resolution is decided by a consensus of credible reporting, or solely by official results from the Central Election Commission if ambiguity arises.
Key dates
- Election date: — Taiwanese local elections scheduled date
- Resolution cutoff date: — Market resolves to Other if no winner is elected by 11:59 PM ET
Resolution source
Consensus of credible reporting, with the Central Election Commission (Taiwanese government) used in cases of ambiguity
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
Community forecast
Community forecasting arrives with the forecast tools.