Will Hsieh Lung-chieh win the next Tainan Mayor election?
Current price
6.9¢
±0¢ · 24h
Implied probability 6.9%
$1.7K total volume · YES/NO
Low gotcha risk
Gotcha risk — resolution-rule assessment
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The rules clearly define that resolution depends on whether Hsieh Lung-chieh wins the next scheduled Tainan mayoral election in November 2026. Official results from the Central Election Commission serve as the definitive fallback if reporting consensus is unclear, and interim appointments before the election are explicitly excluded. There is also an ample longstop date through June 30, 2027 to resolve any delays or election certification disputes.
- Wording ambiguity
- Low
- Source discretion
- Low
- Timing risk
- Low
- Exceptional clauses
- Low
Liquidity
Moderate book at the daily check: a spread over 1¢, or less than $50K within 5¢ of the mid. Larger orders may move the price, so check the book before sizing.
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
Taiwanese local elections are scheduled to be held on November 28, 2026. This market will resolve according to the candidate who becomes the next Mayor of Tainan as a result of this election. Temporary, interim, or placeholder Mayors appointed before the election will not be considered. If the result of this election isn't known, or no candidate has been elected, by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the results of the elections as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Taiwanese government, specifically the Central Election Commission (https://db.cec.gov.tw/).
Rules history
Rules history is not displayed yet.
Market explained
This market measures whether Hsieh Lung-chieh will win the next Tainan Mayor election, scheduled for November 28, 2026.
How it resolves
The market resolves to Yes if Hsieh Lung-chieh becomes the next Mayor of Tainan as a result of the November 28, 2026 election. The market resolves to No if another candidate becomes the next Mayor of Tainan as a result of this election. Temporary, interim, or placeholder Mayors appointed before the election do not count. The market resolves to Other if the election result is not known or no candidate has been elected by June 30, 2027, at 11:59 PM ET. Resolution is determined by a consensus of credible reporting, or by official results from the Central Election Commission of the Taiwanese government if ambiguity arises.
Key dates
- Election date: — Taiwanese local elections are scheduled to be held.
- Resolution deadline: — Market resolves to Other if no winner is determined by 11:59 PM ET.
Resolution source
Consensus of credible reporting, or the Taiwanese Central Election Commission if ambiguous
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
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