Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 NJ-12 House election by 30%-35%?
Current price
27¢
Implied probability 27%
$4.5K total volume · YES/NO
Low gotcha risk
Gotcha risk — resolution-rule assessment
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The rules provide clear and precise mathematical definitions for calculating the margin of victory, specifying that candidate vote shares are computed relative to the total valid votes cast across all candidates. Official certified results from the state election authority serve as the primary source, with an explicit June 30, 2027 cutoff resolving to Other if certified results are stalled. Specific boundary rules exist for boundary values falling exactly between brackets, which round up to the higher bracket, as well as detailed tie-breaking mechanics based on alphabetical ordering of last names.
- Wording ambiguity
- Low
- Source discretion
- Low
- Timing risk
- Low
- Exceptional clauses
- Med
Liquidity
Thin book — large orders will move this price. At the daily check: a spread of 5¢ or more (or none quoted), or less than $2K within 5¢ of the mid.
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
The 2026 NJ-12 House election is currently expected to be held on November 3, 2026. This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the specified election. The "margin of victory" is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election. For purposes of this market, candidates nominated by the Democratic & Republican Parties will represent the options for "Democrat" and "Republican," respectively. Independent candidates will not represent options for either party. The candidates may be named in the contract for the convenience of traders. In the event that any named candidate is replaced as the nominee of their respective party prior to election day, the name in the contract will be updated and the market will resolve based on the replacement nominee of the party. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket. If two or more candidates tie for the most valid votes in this election, and the tie is between two candidates listed, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the candidate whose ballot-listed last name comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed candidate and an unlisted candidate, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed candidate. If the tie is between two or more unlisted candidates, this market will resolve to "Other." If the listed candidate is represented in this market group as "Republican" or "Democrat" their ballot-listed last name will still be used for tiebreaking. This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official. If the election results are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official. The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 NJ-12 House election as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Rules history
Rules history is not displayed yet.
Market explained
This market measures whether the Democratic Party candidate wins the 2026 U.S. House election in New Jersey's 12th congressional district by a margin of victory between 30% and 35%.
How it resolves
The market resolves to Yes if the Democratic Party candidate wins the 2026 NJ-12 House election by a margin of victory between 30% and 35%, calculated as the absolute difference between the vote percentages of the top two finishers out of all valid votes. If the margin falls exactly between two brackets, it resolves to the higher bracket. The market resolves to No if the Democratic candidate wins by a different margin, loses, or another bracket applies. It resolves to Other if results are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, or if two or more unlisted candidates tie for first place. Resolution is decided by the state electoral authority's certified results or an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting.
Key dates
- Expected election date: — The election is expected to take place on this date.
- Definitive result deadline: If results are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market resolves to Other.
Resolution source
The official results published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results, or an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting.
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