Will Democrats win exactly 5 House seats in North Carolina in the 2026 midterm elections?
Current price
45¢
±0¢ · 24h
Implied probability 45%
$6.9K total volume · YES/NO
Low gotcha risk
Gotcha risk — resolution-rule assessment
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The rules clearly specify how seats are counted for the 120th Congress, explicitly excluding special elections for unexpired terms and addressing how runoffs and party switches post-election are handled. Independent caucusing rules are clearly defined with an objective fallback deadline of January 4 following the election. Resolution relies on official state electoral authorities, the US Congress, and a consensus of credible reporting, which provides a standard degree of discretion without introducing unusual risks.
- Wording ambiguity
- Low
- Source discretion
- Med
- Timing risk
- Low
- Exceptional clauses
- Low
Liquidity
Moderate book at the daily check: a spread over 1¢, or less than $50K within 5¢ of the mid. Larger orders may move the price, so check the book before sizing.
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve according to the number of seats in the US House of Representatives won by the Democratic Party in North Carolina in the 2026 United States midterm election. All North Carolina US House of Representatives elections held as part of the 2026 United States midterm election that elect voting members and determine representation in the upcoming 120th congress are included. Special elections to fill a vacancy for the remainder of an unexpired term are not included, whether or not held concurrently with the 2026 United States midterm election. Runoffs for qualifying elections will determine attribution of the relevant seat. Seats are attributed to the party under which the member was elected. If a member-elect changes party affiliation or vacates their seat after the date of the 2026 United States midterm election, the seat is attributed to the party under which the member was elected. Members of the House elected as independents who formally caucus, or who announce their intent to caucus, with a party prior to the date of the 2026 United States midterm election are included in that party’s count. If the caucus decisions of relevant members of the US House of Representatives elected as independents cannot be determined as of the date of the 2026 United States midterm election, this market may remain open until the earlier of (i) an announcement from the relevant members of their intents to caucus, or (ii) January 4th, 11:59 PM ET of the following calendar year. If no such announcement is made by January 4th, 11:59 PM ET of the following calendar year, the member will not count towards the seat count of any party. The resolution sources for this market will be official information from relevant state electoral authorities, the United States Congress, and a consensus of credible reporting.
Rules history
Rules history is not displayed yet.
Market explained
This market measures whether the Democratic Party will win exactly 5 US House of Representatives seats in North Carolina in the 2026 midterm elections.
How it resolves
The market resolves Yes if the Democratic Party wins exactly 5 voting US House of Representatives seats in North Carolina in the 2026 midterm elections for the 120th Congress. The market resolves No if the Democratic Party wins any other number of seats. Special elections to fill unexpired terms are excluded, while runoffs for qualifying seats are included. Seats are credited to the party under which the candidate was elected, even if they later change affiliation or vacate the seat. Independents who caucus or announce intent to caucus with Democrats count toward the total; if their choice is undetermined, resolution may wait until an announcement or January 4, 11:59 PM ET of the following year, after which they count for neither party. Resolution is decided by official information from state electoral authorities, the US Congress, and credible reporting.
Key dates
- Independent caucus decision cutoff: — Latest deadline (11:59 PM ET) for independent members to announce caucusing intent before being excluded from party counts.
Resolution source
Official information from relevant state electoral authorities, the United States Congress, and a consensus of credible reporting
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
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