Will Democrats win exactly 10 House seats in New Jersey in the 2026 midterm elections?
Current price
70.5¢
+0.5¢ · 24h
Implied probability 70.5%
$8K total volume · YES/NO
Low gotcha risk
Gotcha risk — resolution-rule assessment
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The rules clearly specify how to count seats won by Democrats in New Jersey during the 2026 midterms for the 120th Congress. Special elections for unexpired terms are explicitly excluded, and clear guidelines are provided for party attribution, party switches after election day, and independent caucus affiliations. The resolution relies on official state electoral authorities, the US Congress, and a consensus of credible reporting, which introduces slight discretion if sources conflict before certification, but overall the criteria align well with standard election results.
- Wording ambiguity
- Low
- Source discretion
- Med
- Timing risk
- Low
- Exceptional clauses
- Low
Liquidity
Moderate book at the daily check: a spread over 1¢, or less than $50K within 5¢ of the mid. Larger orders may move the price, so check the book before sizing.
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve according to the number of seats in the US House of Representatives won by the Democratic Party in New Jersey in the 2026 United States midterm election. All New Jersey US House of Representatives elections held as part of the 2026 United States midterm election that elect voting members and determine representation in the upcoming 120th congress are included. Special elections to fill a vacancy for the remainder of an unexpired term are not included, whether or not held concurrently with the 2026 United States midterm election. Runoffs for qualifying elections will determine attribution of the relevant seat. Seats are attributed to the party under which the member was elected. If a member-elect changes party affiliation or vacates their seat after the date of the 2026 United States midterm election, the seat is attributed to the party under which the member was elected. Members of the House elected as independents who formally caucus, or who announce their intent to caucus, with a party prior to the date of the 2026 United States midterm election are included in that party’s count. If the caucus decisions of relevant members of the US House of Representatives elected as independents cannot be determined as of the date of the 2026 United States midterm election, this market may remain open until the earlier of (i) an announcement from the relevant members of their intents to caucus, or (ii) January 4th, 11:59 PM ET of the following calendar year. If no such announcement is made by January 4th, 11:59 PM ET of the following calendar year, the member will not count towards the seat count of any party. The resolution sources for this market will be official information from relevant state electoral authorities, the United States Congress, and a consensus of credible reporting.
Rules history
Rules history is not displayed yet.
Market explained
This market measures whether the Democratic Party will win exactly 10 U.S. House seats in New Jersey during the 2026 midterm elections for the 120th Congress.
How it resolves
The market resolves to Yes if the Democratic Party wins exactly 10 New Jersey U.S. House of Representatives seats for the 120th Congress in the 2026 midterm elections. The market resolves to No if Democrats win any other number of seats. Seats are attributed to the party under which the member was elected, even if they vacate the seat or change party affiliation after election day. Special elections for unexpired terms are excluded, but runoffs for qualifying elections are included. Independents who caucus or announce intent to caucus with Democrats count toward the Democratic total; undetermined independent caucus decisions can keep the market open until an announcement or January 4th at 11:59 PM ET of the following calendar year, after which they do not count for any party. Resolution is decided by official information from state electoral authorities, the United States Congress, and a consensus of credible reporting.
Key dates
- Independent Caucus Deadline: January 4th, 11:59 PM ET of the following calendar year is the latest deadline to determine independent caucus affiliations.
Resolution source
Official information from relevant state electoral authorities, the United States Congress, and a consensus of credible reporting.
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