Iran charges Hormuz fees by September 30?
Outcome
No
Polymarket resolved this market to No.
No price before the listed close date
- 7 days before
- 24 hours before
- 1 hour before
Counted back from the listed close date, ; price capture stops 6 hours after it. Midpoint prices known at each point; implied probability in cents. Times in UTC.
Medium gotcha risk
Gotcha risk at close — resolution-rule assessment
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This market requires two distinct conditions to be met before the deadline: an official Iranian government policy announcement and verified commencement of collection. Single incidents, isolated extortion demands, or normal port fees do not count. Verifying whether collection has begun and whether a fee is mandatory in practice relies on judging a consensus of credible media reporting rather than an official registry or fixed dataset, leaving room for interpretation if Iran announces a toll but reports conflict on whether any commercial vessels have actually paid it.
- Wording ambiguity
- Med
- Source discretion
- High
- Timing risk
- Low
- Exceptional clauses
- Med
AI-generated before close · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
Why it moved before close
No moves were explained in the 7 days before the listed close date.
Market explained before close
This market measures whether Iran officially announces and starts collecting mandatory transit fees from commercial vessels passing through the Strait of Hormuz by September 30.
How it resolves
The market resolves to Yes if the Iranian government officially announces and begins collecting mandatory fees, tolls, charges, tariffs, or similar payments from commercial vessels for passage through or access to the Strait of Hormuz by September 30, 11:59 PM ET. Both an official Iranian government announcement and a consensus of credible reporting confirming fee collection has started are required. The fee must be an announced policy applying to all commercial vessels or a defined subcategory; isolated charges, normal port fees, customs duties, sanctions costs, and fees charged solely by non-Iranian entities do not qualify. Otherwise, the market resolves to No. Resolution is determined by official announcements from the government of Iran and a consensus of credible reporting.
Key dates
- Resolution deadline: September 30, 11:59 PM ET
Resolution source
Official announcements from the government of Iran and consensus of credible reporting
AI-generated before close · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
Resolution rules at close
This market resolves to “Yes” if the Iranian government officially announces and begins collecting fees, tolls, charges, tariffs, or similar payments from commercial vessels which are mandatory for passage through or access to the Strait of Hormuz between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market resolves to “No.” A qualifying fee must be an announced policy which applies generally to all commercial vessels, or a defined subcategory of commercial vessels (e.g., vessels flagged to the US and its allies). Isolated demanded charges will not qualify. A fee is mandatory if, in practice, affected commercial vessels cannot transit or access the Strait of Hormuz without paying it, regardless of whether Iran characterizes the payment as voluntary or a fee for services. Fees described as tolls, maritime fees, service charges, environmental fees, security fees, insurance charges, etc. will qualify provided they are recognized as mandatory for passage through or access to the Strait of Hormuz by a consensus of credible reporting (e.g., a mandatory insurance fee charged by the Iranian Persian Gulf Strait Authority would qualify). Both of the following are required to occur prior to the specified date, 11:59 PM ET to satisfy this market’s resolution criteria: 1) An official announcement from the Iranian government that such a fee is being, or will be, implemented. 2) A consensus of credible reporting that collection of the fee has begun. Fees charged by Oman, the United Arab Emirates, shipping insurers, private companies, or other non-Iranian entities do not qualify unless charged jointly with Iran, or if Iran directly receives the fee or controls the charging entity. Normal port fees, customs duties, sanctions-related costs, or shipping surcharges do not alone qualify. The resolution sources will be official announcements from the government of Iran and consensus of credible reporting.
About this page
A record of how this market resolved. The prices, analysis and rules shown here come from data Brierpoint captured or generated before close.