Will Estefanía Mercado Asencio win the 2027 Quintana Roo Governor Election?
Gotcha risk
Low1 of 4 factors flagged
Watch for: The market has a clear outcome condition focused on whether the named candidate wins the scheduled gubernatorial election.
Read the full assessment
The market has a clear outcome condition focused on whether the named candidate wins the scheduled gubernatorial election. Resolution relies primarily on a consensus of credible reporting, backed up by official electoral authorities in Mexico and Quintana Roo (INE and IEQROO) if reporting is ambiguous. A clear cutoff date of December 31, 2027, provides sufficient time for vote counting, certification, and legal challenges following the June 2027 election, with an explicit rule excluding interim or caretaker appointments.
- Resolver
- Medium
- Timing
- Low
- Wording
- Low
- Exceptions
- Low
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
Current price
No price snapshots have been captured for this market’s primary token.
Not enough price history for this range yet.
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
Gubernatorial elections are currently scheduled to be held in Quintana Roo on June 6, 2027. This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who wins the 2027 Quintana Roo gubernatorial elections. Any interim or caretaker Governor will not qualify. If the results are not known definitively by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”. This market will resolve based on the results of this election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official results as reported by government sources of Quintana Roo and Mexico, including the Electoral Institute of Quintana Roo and the National Electoral Institute of Mexico.
Market explained
This market measures whether Estefanía Mercado Asencio will win the 2027 Quintana Roo gubernatorial election. It features an explicit exclusion of interim or caretaker governors and a long-stop date resolving to Other if results remain unknown.
How it resolves
The market resolves to Yes if Estefanía Mercado Asencio wins the 2027 Quintana Roo gubernatorial election, with interim or caretaker governors not qualifying. The market resolves to No if another candidate wins the election. The market resolves to Other if the results are not known definitively by December 31, 2027, at 11:59 PM ET. Resolution is determined by a consensus of credible reporting, or by official results from the government of Quintana Roo and Mexico, including the Electoral Institute of Quintana Roo and the National Electoral Institute of Mexico, if ambiguity exists.
Resolution source
Consensus of credible reporting, or official government sources including the Electoral Institute of Quintana Roo and the National Electoral Institute of Mexico
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·