Will Farsi, Hengam, Hormuz or Kharg Island no longer be under Iranian control by September 30, 2026?
Outcome
No
Polymarket resolved this market to No.
No price before the listed close date
- 7 days before
- 24 hours before
- 1 hour before
Counted back from the listed close date, ; price capture stops 6 hours after it. Midpoint prices known at each point; implied probability in cents. Times in UTC.
Medium gotcha risk
Gotcha risk at close — resolution-rule assessment
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Resolution requires verifying that Iran has lost primary governmental or military control over at least one specified island and another entity has established control. The rules explicitly exclude temporary raids, bombardments, naval blockades, and unverified claims, defaulting contested or unclear situations to a negative resolution. Resolution relies on evaluating official government statements alongside a consensus of credible reporting rather than a single definitive authority, which leaves room for interpretation during active geopolitical conflicts where situational control on the ground may be obscured by conflicting wartime claims.
- Wording ambiguity
- Med
- Source discretion
- High
- Timing risk
- Low
- Exceptional clauses
- Low
AI-generated before close · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
Why it moved before close
No moves were explained in the 7 days before the listed close date.
Market explained before close
This market measures whether Iran loses primary governmental or military control over at least one of four specified islands—Farsi, Hengam, Hormuz, or Kharg—to another authority by September 30, 2026.
How it resolves
The market resolves to Yes if Iran no longer exercises primary governmental or military control over at least one of the specified islands (Farsi Island, Hengam Island, Hormuz Island, or Kharg Island) and another state, occupying force, or internationally backed authority has established actual control by September 30, 2026, at 11:59 PM ET. Temporary raids, isolated landings, special operations, bombardment, sabotage, offshore naval presence, temporary disruptions, unverified claims, or negotiated transfers without actual established control do not qualify for Yes. The market resolves to No if Iran retains control, or if control over the islands is contested, unclear, disputed, or not sufficiently established by the deadline. Resolution decisions rely on official statements from the relevant governments and militaries, along with a consensus of credible reporting.
Key dates
- Resolution deadline: — Control must be established by 11:59 PM ET
Resolution source
Official statements from the relevant governments and militaries, along with a consensus of credible reporting
AI-generated before close · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
Resolution rules at close
This market will resolve to "Yes" if at least one of the specified islands is no longer under Iranian control by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The islands that will be considered for resolution are: Farsi Island, Hengam Island, Hormuz Island and Kharg Island. "No longer under the control of Iran" means that Iran no longer exercises primary governmental or military control over at least one of the specified islands, and another state, occupying force, or internationally backed authority has established control. Temporary raids, isolated landings, special operations, bombardment, sabotage, naval presence offshore, or temporary disruption of Iranian activity will not qualify on their own. An announcement, threat, or claim that Iran has lost control will not qualify without actual control being established. If control changes pursuant to a negotiated settlement, ceasefire term, surrender, or transfer agreement, this will qualify only once actual control has been established on the island. If control over at least one of the specified islands is contested, unclear, disputed, or not sufficiently established by the resolution date, this will not qualify, and the market will resolve to "No". The primary resolution source will be official statements from the relevant governments and militaries, along with a consensus of credible reporting.
About this page
A record of how this market resolved. The prices, analysis and rules shown here come from data Brierpoint captured or generated before close.