Will Lamar Jackson be the #1 searched person on Google in the US this year?
Last captured price
0.15¢
±0¢ · 24h
Implied probability 0.15%
$628.7 total volume · YES/NO
Low gotcha risk
Gotcha risk — resolution-rule assessment
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The rules clearly specify an objective, named official source: Google's official Year in Search United States 'People' list for 2026 on the Google Trends hub. The determination requires no subjective interpretation, relying directly on who is ranked first on that list. Resolution occurs as soon as Google publishes the 2026 data, with a clear fallback deadline of March 31, 2027, at which point the market resolves to 'Other' if the list is never released. The criteria and navigation details leave minimal room for ambiguity.
- Wording ambiguity
- Low
- Source discretion
- Low
- Timing risk
- Low
- Exceptional clauses
- Low
Liquidity
Moderate book at the daily check: a spread over 1¢, or less than $50K within 5¢ of the mid. Larger orders may move the price, so check the book before sizing.
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve according to the individual ranked #1 in Google’s official Year in Search United States "People" list for 2026. The specified list is expected to be displayed on the Google Trends Year in Search hub, with location selected to United States. The navigation procedure as of market creation involves going to trends.withgoogle.com/year-in-search/ and clicking through United States → Trending → People. The 2026 page is expected to appear using the same navigation once released (as the 2025 page currently shows the specified ranking). This market will resolve based on the specified list regardless of navigation procedure. This market may resolve as soon as the specified list for 2026 is released. If Google does not release the specified list by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other.” The resolution source for this market will be the specified list as published by Google.
Rules history
Rules history is not displayed yet.
Market explained
This market measures whether Lamar Jackson will be the top-ranked individual on Google's official Year in Search United States "People" list for 2026. Notably, while the question asks about "this year", the resolution rules specifically designate the 2026 rankings.
How it resolves
The market resolves to Yes if Lamar Jackson is ranked #1 on Google's official Year in Search United States "People" list for 2026. The market resolves to No if another individual is ranked #1 on that list. The market resolves to Other if Google does not release the specified 2026 list by March 31, 2027, at 11:59 PM ET. The market may resolve as soon as the specified list is released. Resolution is decided based on the official list published by Google on its Year in Search hub.
Key dates
- List release deadline: — The market resolves to Other if Google has not released the 2026 list by 11:59 PM ET on this date.
Resolution source
Google's official Year in Search United States "People" list for 2026
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
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