Will Zohran Mamdani be the #1 searched person on Google in the US this year?
Last captured price
0.2¢
±0¢ · 24h
Implied probability 0.2%
$471.8 total volume · YES/NO
Low gotcha risk
Gotcha risk — resolution-rule assessment
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The resolution rules clearly designate Google's official 2026 Year in Search US 'People' list as the sole source of truth and detail the specific navigation path on Google Trends. The threshold is strictly the number-one ranked individual on that specific list. There is a definitive resolution cutoff date of March 31, 2027, which resolves the market to 'Other' if Google fails to publish the list. Readers should merely note that Google's Year in Search ranks trending search interest (spikes) rather than absolute total search volume over the year.
- Wording ambiguity
- Low
- Source discretion
- Low
- Timing risk
- Low
- Exceptional clauses
- Low
Liquidity
Moderate book at the daily check: a spread over 1¢, or less than $50K within 5¢ of the mid. Larger orders may move the price, so check the book before sizing.
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve according to the individual ranked #1 in Google’s official Year in Search United States "People" list for 2026. The specified list is expected to be displayed on the Google Trends Year in Search hub, with location selected to United States. The navigation procedure as of market creation involves going to trends.withgoogle.com/year-in-search/ and clicking through United States → Trending → People. The 2026 page is expected to appear using the same navigation once released (as the 2025 page currently shows the specified ranking). This market will resolve based on the specified list regardless of navigation procedure. This market may resolve as soon as the specified list for 2026 is released. If Google does not release the specified list by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other.” The resolution source for this market will be the specified list as published by Google.
Rules history
Rules history is not displayed yet.
Market explained
This market measures whether Zohran Mamdani is the number-one ranked individual on Google's Year in Search United States People list for 2026.
How it resolves
The market resolves to Yes if Zohran Mamdani is ranked #1 on Google's official Year in Search United States People list for 2026. The market resolves to No if another individual is ranked #1 on that list. The market resolves to Other if Google does not release the specified 2026 list by March 31, 2027, at 11:59 PM ET. The market is decided by Google based on the specified list published on its Year in Search hub.
Key dates
- Release deadline: — If Google has not released the 2026 list by 11:59 PM ET on this date, the market resolves to Other.
Resolution source
Google's official Year in Search United States People list for 2026 published by Google
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
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