Will Pope Leo XIV be the #1 searched person on Google in the US this year?
Last captured price
0.15¢
±0¢ · 24h
Implied probability 0.15%
$968.7 total volume · YES/NO
Low gotcha risk
Gotcha risk — resolution-rule assessment
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The rules clearly specify the exact metric, category, and designated source for resolution: Google's official 2026 Year in Search 'People' list for the United States. Resolution occurs directly upon publication of that specific ranking, leaving virtually no room for subjective interpretation or decider discretion. A clear deadline of March 31, 2027, handles the contingency where Google fails to release the list by resolving to 'Other'.
- Wording ambiguity
- Low
- Source discretion
- Low
- Timing risk
- Low
- Exceptional clauses
- Low
Liquidity
Moderate book at the daily check: a spread over 1¢, or less than $50K within 5¢ of the mid. Larger orders may move the price, so check the book before sizing.
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve according to the individual ranked #1 in Google’s official Year in Search United States "People" list for 2026. The specified list is expected to be displayed on the Google Trends Year in Search hub, with location selected to United States. The navigation procedure as of market creation involves going to trends.withgoogle.com/year-in-search/ and clicking through United States → Trending → People. The 2026 page is expected to appear using the same navigation once released (as the 2025 page currently shows the specified ranking). This market will resolve based on the specified list regardless of navigation procedure. This market may resolve as soon as the specified list for 2026 is released. If Google does not release the specified list by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other.” The resolution source for this market will be the specified list as published by Google.
Rules history
Rules history is not displayed yet.
Market explained
This market measures whether Pope Leo XIV will be the number one ranked individual on Google's official Year in Search United States "People" list for 2026.
How it resolves
The market resolves Yes if Pope Leo XIV is ranked number one in Google's official Year in Search United States "People" list for 2026. The market resolves No if any other individual occupies the number one spot on that list. The market resolves to Other if Google does not release the specified list by March 31, 2027, at 11:59 PM ET. The deciding source is the official list published by Google on its Year in Search hub.
Key dates
- List release deadline: — The market resolves to Other if Google does not release the 2026 list by this time.
Resolution source
Google’s official Year in Search United States "People" list for 2026
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
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