Will Sean 'Diddy' Combs be the #1 searched person on Google in the US this year?
Current price
5.9¢
+5.75¢ · 24h
Implied probability 5.9%
$1.8K total volume · YES/NO
Low gotcha risk
Gotcha risk — resolution-rule assessment
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Resolution relies on a clear, named primary source: Google's official Year in Search list for trending people in the United States for 2026. The rules provide specific navigation instructions to locate the list while maintaining resolution criteria even if navigation layouts change. Note that while colloquial phrasing mentions the most searched person, the market strictly resolves based on Google's published ranking methodology for that category rather than raw query counts. A definitive timeout deadline of March 31, 2027, resolving to Other prevents open-ended delays.
- Wording ambiguity
- Low
- Source discretion
- Low
- Timing risk
- Low
- Exceptional clauses
- Low
Liquidity
Thin book — large orders will move this price. At the daily check: a spread of 5¢ or more (or none quoted), or less than $2K within 5¢ of the mid.
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve according to the individual ranked #1 in Google’s official Year in Search United States "People" list for 2026. The specified list is expected to be displayed on the Google Trends Year in Search hub, with location selected to United States. The navigation procedure as of market creation involves going to trends.withgoogle.com/year-in-search/ and clicking through United States → Trending → People. The 2026 page is expected to appear using the same navigation once released (as the 2025 page currently shows the specified ranking). This market will resolve based on the specified list regardless of navigation procedure. This market may resolve as soon as the specified list for 2026 is released. If Google does not release the specified list by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other.” The resolution source for this market will be the specified list as published by Google.
Rules history
Rules history is not displayed yet.
Market explained
This market measures whether Sean 'Diddy' Combs will rank as the top-searched individual on Google in the United States for the 2026 calendar year according to Google's official Year in Search rankings.
How it resolves
The market resolves to Yes if Sean 'Diddy' Combs is ranked number 1 in Google's official Year in Search United States People list for 2026. The market resolves to No if a different individual holds the number 1 ranking on that list. The market resolves to Other if Google does not release the specified list by March 31, 2027, at 11:59 PM ET. Google's published Year in Search data decides the outcome.
Key dates
- Release Cutoff Date: — Market resolves to Other if the 2026 list is not released by 11:59 PM ET on this date.
Resolution source
Google Trends Year in Search United States People list
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
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