Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the #1 searched person on Google in the US this year?
Last captured price
0.15¢
±0¢ · 24h
Implied probability 0.15%
$896.7 total volume · YES/NO
Low gotcha risk
Gotcha risk — resolution-rule assessment
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The rules clearly specify the resolution criteria and official source: the individual ranked number one on Google's official Year in Search United States 'People' list for 2026. The source location and expected navigation path on Google Trends are explicitly detailed. Resolution occurs as soon as the 2026 list is released, and a clear deadline of March 31, 2027, is established to resolve the market to 'Other' if Google fails to publish the list. There is minimal ambiguity and no subjective judgment required.
- Wording ambiguity
- Low
- Source discretion
- Low
- Timing risk
- Low
- Exceptional clauses
- Low
Liquidity
Moderate book at the daily check: a spread over 1¢, or less than $50K within 5¢ of the mid. Larger orders may move the price, so check the book before sizing.
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve according to the individual ranked #1 in Google’s official Year in Search United States "People" list for 2026. The specified list is expected to be displayed on the Google Trends Year in Search hub, with location selected to United States. The navigation procedure as of market creation involves going to trends.withgoogle.com/year-in-search/ and clicking through United States → Trending → People. The 2026 page is expected to appear using the same navigation once released (as the 2025 page currently shows the specified ranking). This market will resolve based on the specified list regardless of navigation procedure. This market may resolve as soon as the specified list for 2026 is released. If Google does not release the specified list by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other.” The resolution source for this market will be the specified list as published by Google.
Rules history
Rules history is not displayed yet.
Market explained
This market measures whether Benjamin Netanyahu will rank as the top individual on Google's official Year in Search United States "People" list. Unusually, while the title asks about "this year", the rules explicitly evaluate the rankings for the year 2026.
How it resolves
The market resolves to Yes if Benjamin Netanyahu is the individual ranked #1 on Google's official Year in Search United States "People" list for 2026. The market resolves to No if any other individual is ranked #1 on that list. The market resolves to Other if Google does not release the specified list by March 31, 2027, at 11:59 PM ET. The deciding source is Google's official Year in Search publication.
Key dates
- List release fallback deadline: — Market resolves to Other if the 2026 list is not released by 11:59 PM ET on this date
Resolution source
Google's official Year in Search United States "People" list
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
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