Will Ja Morant be the #1 searched person on Google in the US this year?
Last captured price
0.15¢
±0¢ · 24h
Implied probability 0.15%
$406.7 total volume · YES/NO
Low gotcha risk
Gotcha risk — resolution-rule assessment
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The market relies on a specific, named official publication: Google's Year in Search United States People list for 2026. Note that Google's Year in Search reflects trending spikes in search traffic rather than total absolute search volume, but the rules explicitly bind resolution to that designated ranking. There is a clear backstop date of March 31, 2027, at 11:59 PM ET if Google fails to publish the list, leaving minimal decider discretion.
- Wording ambiguity
- Low
- Source discretion
- Low
- Timing risk
- Low
- Exceptional clauses
- Low
Liquidity
Moderate book at the daily check: a spread over 1¢, or less than $50K within 5¢ of the mid. Larger orders may move the price, so check the book before sizing.
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve according to the individual ranked #1 in Google’s official Year in Search United States "People" list for 2026. The specified list is expected to be displayed on the Google Trends Year in Search hub, with location selected to United States. The navigation procedure as of market creation involves going to trends.withgoogle.com/year-in-search/ and clicking through United States → Trending → People. The 2026 page is expected to appear using the same navigation once released (as the 2025 page currently shows the specified ranking). This market will resolve based on the specified list regardless of navigation procedure. This market may resolve as soon as the specified list for 2026 is released. If Google does not release the specified list by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other.” The resolution source for this market will be the specified list as published by Google.
Rules history
Rules history is not displayed yet.
Market explained
This market measures whether Ja Morant finishes ranked #1 on Google's official Year in Search United States "People" list for 2026. While the title refers to "this year", the rules specifically evaluate the 2026 release.
How it resolves
The market resolves Yes if Ja Morant is the individual ranked #1 on Google's official Year in Search United States "People" list for 2026. The market resolves No if any other individual ranks #1 on that list. The market resolves to Other if Google does not release the specified list for 2026 by March 31, 2027, at 11:59 PM ET. Google's published list on the Google Trends Year in Search hub decides the outcome.
Key dates
- Release deadline: — The market resolves to Other if the 2026 list is not released by this time.
Resolution source
Google's official Year in Search United States "People" list for 2026
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
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