Will Anthony Edwards be the #1 searched person on Google in the US this year?
Last captured price
0.15¢
±0¢ · 24h
Implied probability 0.15%
$406.7 total volume · YES/NO
Low gotcha risk
Gotcha risk — resolution-rule assessment
Show less
This market resolves strictly based on the official 2026 Google Year in Search 'People' ranking for the United States. Google Trends is the direct and sole source of truth, leaving minimal room for decider interpretation. The rules account for potential changes in site navigation by anchoring to the official published list regardless of URL structure, and include a clear fallback date of March 31, 2027, resolving to 'Other' if the list is not released.
- Wording ambiguity
- Low
- Source discretion
- Low
- Timing risk
- Low
- Exceptional clauses
- Low
Liquidity
Moderate book at the daily check: a spread over 1¢, or less than $50K within 5¢ of the mid. Larger orders may move the price, so check the book before sizing.
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve according to the individual ranked #1 in Google’s official Year in Search United States "People" list for 2026. The specified list is expected to be displayed on the Google Trends Year in Search hub, with location selected to United States. The navigation procedure as of market creation involves going to trends.withgoogle.com/year-in-search/ and clicking through United States → Trending → People. The 2026 page is expected to appear using the same navigation once released (as the 2025 page currently shows the specified ranking). This market will resolve based on the specified list regardless of navigation procedure. This market may resolve as soon as the specified list for 2026 is released. If Google does not release the specified list by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other.” The resolution source for this market will be the specified list as published by Google.
Rules history
Rules history is not displayed yet.
Market explained
This market measures whether Anthony Edwards will be the top-ranked individual on Google's official Year in Search United States People list for 2026.
How it resolves
The market resolves to Yes if Anthony Edwards is ranked #1 on Google's official Year in Search United States People list for 2026. The market resolves to No if another individual is ranked #1 on that list. The market resolves to Other if Google does not release the specified 2026 list by March 31, 2027, at 11:59 PM ET. The market may resolve as soon as the 2026 list is released. Google is the deciding source via its published Year in Search data.
Key dates
- Release deadline for fallback resolution: — If Google has not released the 2026 list by this time, the market resolves to Other.
Resolution source
Google's official Year in Search United States "People" list for 2026 published by Google
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
Community forecast
Community forecasting arrives with the forecast tools.