Will Patrick Mahomes be the #1 searched person on Google in the US this year?
Last captured price
0.25¢
±0¢ · 24h
Implied probability 0.25%
$856.7 total volume · YES/NO
Low gotcha risk
Gotcha risk — resolution-rule assessment
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The rules clearly specify an objective outcome determined by a named official source: Google's official Year in Search United States list for the 'People' category in 2026. The resolution mechanism defines the exact URL path and category, allows resolution immediately upon publication, and includes a precise fallback deadline of March 31, 2027, resolving to 'Other' if Google fails to publish the list. There is minimal interpretive leeway or source discretion required.
- Wording ambiguity
- Low
- Source discretion
- Low
- Timing risk
- Low
- Exceptional clauses
- Low
Liquidity
Moderate book at the daily check: a spread over 1¢, or less than $50K within 5¢ of the mid. Larger orders may move the price, so check the book before sizing.
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve according to the individual ranked #1 in Google’s official Year in Search United States "People" list for 2026. The specified list is expected to be displayed on the Google Trends Year in Search hub, with location selected to United States. The navigation procedure as of market creation involves going to trends.withgoogle.com/year-in-search/ and clicking through United States → Trending → People. The 2026 page is expected to appear using the same navigation once released (as the 2025 page currently shows the specified ranking). This market will resolve based on the specified list regardless of navigation procedure. This market may resolve as soon as the specified list for 2026 is released. If Google does not release the specified list by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other.” The resolution source for this market will be the specified list as published by Google.
Rules history
Rules history is not displayed yet.
Market explained
This market measures whether Patrick Mahomes will be ranked number one on Google's official Year in Search United States "People" list for 2026. Notably, the market specifies the 2026 annual list rather than the current year of creation.
How it resolves
The market resolves to Yes if Patrick Mahomes is ranked #1 in Google's official Year in Search United States "People" list for 2026. The market resolves to No if any other individual is ranked #1 on that list. The market resolves to Other if Google does not release the specified list by March 31, 2027, at 11:59 PM ET. Resolution is determined by Google via its published 2026 Year in Search data, and the market may resolve as soon as the list is released.
Key dates
- Resolution fallback deadline: — Market resolves to Other if Google has not released the 2026 list by this time.
Resolution source
Google's official Year in Search United States "People" list for 2026
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
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