Will Timothée Chalamet be the #1 searched person on Google in the US this year?
Last captured price
0.15¢
±0¢ · 24h
Implied probability 0.15%
$653.7 total volume · YES/NO
Low gotcha risk
Gotcha risk — resolution-rule assessment
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The market resolves directly from Google's official 2026 Year in Search report for the United States under the People category. While Google's Year in Search lists track trending search spikes rather than absolute raw search volume over the year, the rules explicitly define this specific publication as the sole decider. A precise navigation path on the Google Trends hub is provided, and the rules include a clear early-resolution condition upon release as well as a specific longstop date of March 31, 2027, resolving to Other if the list is omitted.
- Wording ambiguity
- Low
- Source discretion
- Low
- Timing risk
- Low
- Exceptional clauses
- Low
Liquidity
Moderate book at the daily check: a spread over 1¢, or less than $50K within 5¢ of the mid. Larger orders may move the price, so check the book before sizing.
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve according to the individual ranked #1 in Google’s official Year in Search United States "People" list for 2026. The specified list is expected to be displayed on the Google Trends Year in Search hub, with location selected to United States. The navigation procedure as of market creation involves going to trends.withgoogle.com/year-in-search/ and clicking through United States → Trending → People. The 2026 page is expected to appear using the same navigation once released (as the 2025 page currently shows the specified ranking). This market will resolve based on the specified list regardless of navigation procedure. This market may resolve as soon as the specified list for 2026 is released. If Google does not release the specified list by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other.” The resolution source for this market will be the specified list as published by Google.
Rules history
Rules history is not displayed yet.
Market explained
This market measures whether Timothée Chalamet will rank as the number-one trending person in the United States on Google in 2026.
How it resolves
The market resolves to Yes if Timothée Chalamet is ranked #1 in Google's official Year in Search United States "People" list for 2026. The market resolves to No if any other individual is ranked #1 on that list. The market resolves to Other if Google does not release the specified list by March 31, 2027, at 11:59 PM ET. The market will resolve as soon as the list is released, based on the official list published by Google.
Key dates
- Release deadline: — The market resolves to Other if Google has not released the 2026 list by this time.
Resolution source
Google's official Year in Search United States "People" list for 2026
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
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