Will Josh Allen be the #1 searched person on Google in the US this year?
Last captured price
0.15¢
±0¢ · 24h
Implied probability 0.15%
$431.7 total volume · YES/NO
Low gotcha risk
Gotcha risk — resolution-rule assessment
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This market resolves directly based on the top-ranked individual in Google's official Year in Search United States 'People' list for 2026. The source is explicitly specified with exact navigation instructions on Google Trends, and resolution occurs as soon as the official list is published. There is an explicit fallback clause resolving the market to Other if Google does not publish the list by March 31, 2027, leaving little ambiguity or decider discretion.
- Wording ambiguity
- Low
- Source discretion
- Low
- Timing risk
- Low
- Exceptional clauses
- Low
Liquidity
Moderate book at the daily check: a spread over 1¢, or less than $50K within 5¢ of the mid. Larger orders may move the price, so check the book before sizing.
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve according to the individual ranked #1 in Google’s official Year in Search United States "People" list for 2026. The specified list is expected to be displayed on the Google Trends Year in Search hub, with location selected to United States. The navigation procedure as of market creation involves going to trends.withgoogle.com/year-in-search/ and clicking through United States → Trending → People. The 2026 page is expected to appear using the same navigation once released (as the 2025 page currently shows the specified ranking). This market will resolve based on the specified list regardless of navigation procedure. This market may resolve as soon as the specified list for 2026 is released. If Google does not release the specified list by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other.” The resolution source for this market will be the specified list as published by Google.
Rules history
Rules history is not displayed yet.
Market explained
This market measures whether Josh Allen will be the top-ranked individual on Google's official Year in Search United States People list for 2026. Notably, while the title refers to this year, the rules specifically designate the 2026 list.
How it resolves
The market resolves to Yes if Josh Allen is ranked #1 on Google's official Year in Search United States People list for 2026. The market resolves to No if someone other than Josh Allen holds the #1 ranking on this list. The market resolves to Other if Google does not release the official list by March 31, 2027, at 11:59 PM ET. Resolution is decided by the official list published on the Google Trends Year in Search hub.
Key dates
- List release fallback deadline: — If Google does not release the 2026 list by this time, the market resolves to Other.
Resolution source
Google's official Year in Search United States People list
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
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