Will Shohei Ohtani be the #1 searched person on Google in the US this year?
Last captured price
0.25¢
±0¢ · 24h
Implied probability 0.25%
$981.7 total volume · YES/NO
Low gotcha risk
Gotcha risk — resolution-rule assessment
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The market resolves strictly according to the top-ranked individual on Google's official Year in Search United States 'People' list for 2026. The source is a specific, direct publication from Google, and the navigation path is clearly defined. An unambiguous timeout rule resolves the market to 'Other' if Google fails to publish the list by March 31, 2027. Note that Google's Year in Search lists reflect trending search traffic rather than total absolute search volume, but the rules explicitly bind resolution to that specific named list.
- Wording ambiguity
- Low
- Source discretion
- Low
- Timing risk
- Low
- Exceptional clauses
- Low
Liquidity
Moderate book at the daily check: a spread over 1¢, or less than $50K within 5¢ of the mid. Larger orders may move the price, so check the book before sizing.
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve according to the individual ranked #1 in Google’s official Year in Search United States "People" list for 2026. The specified list is expected to be displayed on the Google Trends Year in Search hub, with location selected to United States. The navigation procedure as of market creation involves going to trends.withgoogle.com/year-in-search/ and clicking through United States → Trending → People. The 2026 page is expected to appear using the same navigation once released (as the 2025 page currently shows the specified ranking). This market will resolve based on the specified list regardless of navigation procedure. This market may resolve as soon as the specified list for 2026 is released. If Google does not release the specified list by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other.” The resolution source for this market will be the specified list as published by Google.
Rules history
Rules history is not displayed yet.
Market explained
This market measures whether Shohei Ohtani will be the number one ranked individual in Google's official Year in Search United States "People" list for 2026.
How it resolves
The market resolves to Yes if Shohei Ohtani is ranked number one in Google's official Year in Search United States "People" list for 2026. The market resolves to No if any other individual is ranked number one on that list. The market resolves to Other if Google does not release the official list by March 31, 2027, at 11:59 PM ET. The market may resolve as soon as the 2026 list is released, determined by Google's published list on the Google Trends Year in Search hub regardless of site navigation changes.
Key dates
- List Release Deadline: — The market resolves to Other if Google has not released the specified 2026 list by this time.
Resolution source
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
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