Will Caitlin Clark be the #1 searched person on Google in the US this year?
Last captured price
0.15¢
±0¢ · 24h
Implied probability 0.15%
$431.7 total volume · YES/NO
Low gotcha risk
Gotcha risk — resolution-rule assessment
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This market resolves strictly using a named official source: Google's Year in Search United States 'People' list for 2026. The rules provide specific navigation instructions to the exact ranking table on Google's portal and make clear that resolution occurs as soon as the 2026 list is published. Participants should note that Google's Year in Search rankings measure trending traffic spikes rather than raw all-time search volume, but the rules explicitly bind resolution to that specific official list. If Google does not publish the list by March 31, 2027, the market cleanly resolves to a specified fallback outcome.
- Wording ambiguity
- Low
- Source discretion
- Low
- Timing risk
- Low
- Exceptional clauses
- Low
Liquidity
Moderate book at the daily check: a spread over 1¢, or less than $50K within 5¢ of the mid. Larger orders may move the price, so check the book before sizing.
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve according to the individual ranked #1 in Google’s official Year in Search United States "People" list for 2026. The specified list is expected to be displayed on the Google Trends Year in Search hub, with location selected to United States. The navigation procedure as of market creation involves going to trends.withgoogle.com/year-in-search/ and clicking through United States → Trending → People. The 2026 page is expected to appear using the same navigation once released (as the 2025 page currently shows the specified ranking). This market will resolve based on the specified list regardless of navigation procedure. This market may resolve as soon as the specified list for 2026 is released. If Google does not release the specified list by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other.” The resolution source for this market will be the specified list as published by Google.
Rules history
Rules history is not displayed yet.
Market explained
This market measures whether Caitlin Clark will be ranked as the number one individual on Google's official Year in Search "People" list for the United States for the year 2026.
How it resolves
The market resolves to Yes if Caitlin Clark is ranked #1 on Google's official Year in Search United States "People" list for 2026. The market resolves to No if another individual is ranked #1 on the list. The market resolves to Other if Google does not release the specified 2026 list by March 31, 2027, at 11:59 PM ET. Resolution is decided by the official Year in Search list published by Google.
Key dates
- Release deadline for list: — Market resolves to Other if Google has not released the 2026 list by 11:59 PM ET.
Resolution source
Google's official Year in Search United States "People" list for 2026
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
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