Will Billie Eilish be the #1 searched person on Google in the US this year?
Last captured price
0.15¢
±0¢ · 24h
Implied probability 0.15%
$731.3 total volume · YES/NO
Low gotcha risk
Gotcha risk — resolution-rule assessment
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The market resolves directly against Google's official 2026 Year in Search US 'People' list, leaving virtually no room for subjective interpretation. A specific navigation path and URL are outlined, and resolution triggers as soon as Google publishes the 2026 data. A clear longstop date of March 31, 2027 exists with a defined fallback outcome if Google fails to publish the list. Participants should simply note that Google's Year in Search lists reflect trending search spikes rather than raw total search volume, but the rules strictly bind resolution to the ranked #1 spot on that specific named list.
- Wording ambiguity
- Low
- Source discretion
- Low
- Timing risk
- Low
- Exceptional clauses
- Low
Liquidity
Moderate book at the daily check: a spread over 1¢, or less than $50K within 5¢ of the mid. Larger orders may move the price, so check the book before sizing.
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve according to the individual ranked #1 in Google’s official Year in Search United States "People" list for 2026. The specified list is expected to be displayed on the Google Trends Year in Search hub, with location selected to United States. The navigation procedure as of market creation involves going to trends.withgoogle.com/year-in-search/ and clicking through United States → Trending → People. The 2026 page is expected to appear using the same navigation once released (as the 2025 page currently shows the specified ranking). This market will resolve based on the specified list regardless of navigation procedure. This market may resolve as soon as the specified list for 2026 is released. If Google does not release the specified list by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other.” The resolution source for this market will be the specified list as published by Google.
Rules history
Rules history is not displayed yet.
Market explained
This market measures whether Billie Eilish will be the top-ranked individual on Google's Year in Search United States "People" list for 2026.
How it resolves
The market resolves to Yes if Billie Eilish is ranked #1 on Google's official Year in Search United States "People" list for 2026. The market resolves to No if any other individual ranks #1 on that list. The market resolves to Other if Google does not release the specified list by March 31, 2027, at 11:59 PM ET. Google's published Year in Search data serves as the official resolution source.
Key dates
- Release deadline: — Market resolves to Other if Google has not released the 2026 list by this time.
Resolution source
Google Trends Year in Search hub
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
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