Will Sabrina Carpenter be the #1 searched person on Google in the US this year?
Last captured price
0.15¢
±0¢ · 24h
Implied probability 0.15%
$691.2 total volume · YES/NO
Low gotcha risk
Gotcha risk — resolution-rule assessment
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The rules clearly define the outcome using Google's official Year in Search United States 'People' list for 2026. A precise URL and navigation path are provided, resolving as soon as the official ranking is published. Google's metric measures trending searches rather than absolute search volume, but the rules explicitly anchor resolution to that specific named list. A hard cutoff date of March 31, 2027, provides a clear fallback resolution if Google fails to publish the list.
- Wording ambiguity
- Low
- Source discretion
- Low
- Timing risk
- Low
- Exceptional clauses
- Low
Liquidity
Moderate book at the daily check: a spread over 1¢, or less than $50K within 5¢ of the mid. Larger orders may move the price, so check the book before sizing.
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve according to the individual ranked #1 in Google’s official Year in Search United States "People" list for 2026. The specified list is expected to be displayed on the Google Trends Year in Search hub, with location selected to United States. The navigation procedure as of market creation involves going to trends.withgoogle.com/year-in-search/ and clicking through United States → Trending → People. The 2026 page is expected to appear using the same navigation once released (as the 2025 page currently shows the specified ranking). This market will resolve based on the specified list regardless of navigation procedure. This market may resolve as soon as the specified list for 2026 is released. If Google does not release the specified list by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other.” The resolution source for this market will be the specified list as published by Google.
Rules history
Rules history is not displayed yet.
Market explained
This market measures whether Sabrina Carpenter will rank as the number-one searched person in the United States on Google's official Year in Search list for 2026.
How it resolves
This market resolves to Yes if Sabrina Carpenter is ranked number one on Google's official Year in Search United States 'People' list for 2026. This market resolves to No if any other individual is ranked number one on that list. This market resolves to Other if Google does not release the specified 2026 list by March 31, 2027, at 11:59 PM ET. Resolution will be determined directly by the official list published on the Google Trends Year in Search hub.
Key dates
- Release deadline: — Market resolves to Other if Google has not released the 2026 list by this time.
Resolution source
Google's official Year in Search United States "People" list for 2026 on Google Trends
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
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