Will Donald Trump be the #1 searched person on Google in the US this year?
Current price
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Low gotcha risk
Gotcha risk — resolution-rule assessment
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The rules clearly specify an exact, authoritative primary source: Google's official 2026 Year in Search 'People' list for the United States. Resolution relies strictly on the ranking displayed in that published list, leaving no room for interpretive discretion by the decider. There is also a precise fallback deadline of March 31, 2027, resolving to Other if Google does not publish the ranking. One detail to keep in mind is that Google's Year in Search reflects the top trending people (highest spike in interest relative to the prior year) rather than total raw search volume over the entire year, but the rules explicitly bind resolution to this specific published list.
- Wording ambiguity
- Low
- Source discretion
- Low
- Timing risk
- Low
- Exceptional clauses
- Low
Liquidity
No order-book snapshots have been captured for this market’s primary token.
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve according to the individual ranked #1 in Google’s official Year in Search United States "People" list for 2026. The specified list is expected to be displayed on the Google Trends Year in Search hub, with location selected to United States. The navigation procedure as of market creation involves going to trends.withgoogle.com/year-in-search/ and clicking through United States → Trending → People. The 2026 page is expected to appear using the same navigation once released (as the 2025 page currently shows the specified ranking). This market will resolve based on the specified list regardless of navigation procedure. This market may resolve as soon as the specified list for 2026 is released. If Google does not release the specified list by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other.” The resolution source for this market will be the specified list as published by Google.
Rules history
Rules history is not displayed yet.
Market explained
This market measures whether Donald Trump ranks #1 on Google's official Year in Search "People" list for the United States in 2026. Note that while the question references "this year," the specific resolution rules apply to the 2026 list.
How it resolves
The market resolves to Yes if Donald Trump is ranked #1 on Google's official Year in Search United States "People" list for 2026. The market resolves to No if another individual is ranked #1 on that list. The market resolves to Other if Google does not release the specified 2026 list by March 31, 2027, at 11:59 PM ET. The market may resolve as soon as the 2026 list is released. Resolution is decided strictly by the specified list as published by Google on its Google Trends Year in Search hub, regardless of the navigation procedure used to access it.
Key dates
- Resolution deadline for unreleased list: — If Google has not released the 2026 list by this time, the market resolves to Other.
Resolution source
Google Trends Year in Search hub (United States 'People' list for 2026 published by Google)
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
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