Will Kylian Mbappé be the #1 searched person on Google in the US this year?
Last captured price
0.15¢
±0¢ · 24h
Implied probability 0.15%
$431.7 total volume · YES/NO
Low gotcha risk
Gotcha risk — resolution-rule assessment
Show less
The market clearly identifies an official resolution source, pointing directly to Google's official Year in Search 2026 page for the United States under the People category. The criterion is straightforward: whether Kylian Mbappé holds the number one rank on that specific list. A clear expiration date of March 31, 2027, provides a defined fallback to resolve as Other if Google fails to publish the list. Participants should note that Google Year in Search lists typically rank trending search terms rather than absolute search volume, but the rules explicitly bind resolution to the published list rankings regardless.
- Wording ambiguity
- Low
- Source discretion
- Low
- Timing risk
- Low
- Exceptional clauses
- Low
Liquidity
Moderate book at the daily check: a spread over 1¢, or less than $50K within 5¢ of the mid. Larger orders may move the price, so check the book before sizing.
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve according to the individual ranked #1 in Google’s official Year in Search United States "People" list for 2026. The specified list is expected to be displayed on the Google Trends Year in Search hub, with location selected to United States. The navigation procedure as of market creation involves going to trends.withgoogle.com/year-in-search/ and clicking through United States → Trending → People. The 2026 page is expected to appear using the same navigation once released (as the 2025 page currently shows the specified ranking). This market will resolve based on the specified list regardless of navigation procedure. This market may resolve as soon as the specified list for 2026 is released. If Google does not release the specified list by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other.” The resolution source for this market will be the specified list as published by Google.
Rules history
Rules history is not displayed yet.
Market explained
This market measures whether Kylian Mbappé will rank first among people searched on Google in the United States for the year 2026. Although the title refers to this year, the rules specifically evaluate the 2026 rankings.
How it resolves
The market resolves to Yes if Kylian Mbappé is ranked #1 in Google's official Year in Search United States "People" list for 2026. The market resolves to No if a different individual is ranked #1 on that list. The market resolves to Other if Google does not release the specified list by March 31, 2027, at 11:59 PM ET. Resolution relies on the specified list published by Google, regardless of the navigation procedure used to access it, and may occur as soon as the 2026 list is released.
Key dates
- Release deadline: — The market resolves to Other if Google has not released the 2026 list by this time.
Resolution source
Google Trends Year in Search United States "People" list for 2026
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
Community forecast
Community forecasting arrives with the forecast tools.