Will Neymar be the #1 searched person on Google in the US this year?
Last captured price
0.15¢
±0¢ · 24h
Implied probability 0.15%
$406.7 total volume · YES/NO
Low gotcha risk
Gotcha risk — resolution-rule assessment
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The rules clearly establish the resolution source as Google's official 2026 Year in Search United States 'People' list, detailing the exact navigation path on the Google Trends hub. There is minimal source discretion since outcome determination relies entirely on Google's published ranking. Market participants should note that Google's Year in Search measures trending spikes rather than raw absolute search volume, but the rules explicitly bind resolution to the specific #1 spot on that designated official list. A clear fallback deadline of March 31, 2027, is provided in the event Google does not publish the list.
- Wording ambiguity
- Low
- Source discretion
- Low
- Timing risk
- Low
- Exceptional clauses
- Low
Liquidity
Moderate book at the daily check: a spread over 1¢, or less than $50K within 5¢ of the mid. Larger orders may move the price, so check the book before sizing.
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve according to the individual ranked #1 in Google’s official Year in Search United States "People" list for 2026. The specified list is expected to be displayed on the Google Trends Year in Search hub, with location selected to United States. The navigation procedure as of market creation involves going to trends.withgoogle.com/year-in-search/ and clicking through United States → Trending → People. The 2026 page is expected to appear using the same navigation once released (as the 2025 page currently shows the specified ranking). This market will resolve based on the specified list regardless of navigation procedure. This market may resolve as soon as the specified list for 2026 is released. If Google does not release the specified list by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other.” The resolution source for this market will be the specified list as published by Google.
Rules history
Rules history is not displayed yet.
Market explained
This market measures whether Neymar will be ranked number one on Google's official Year in Search United States People list for 2026.
How it resolves
The market resolves to Yes if Neymar is ranked #1 on Google's official Year in Search United States "People" list for 2026. The market resolves to No if another individual is ranked #1 on this list. The market resolves to Other if Google does not release the specified list by March 31, 2027, at 11:59 PM ET. The market is decided by the official list published on the Google Trends Year in Search hub.
Key dates
- Release deadline for list: — If Google does not release the 2026 list by this time, the market resolves to Other.
Resolution source
Google Trends Year in Search United States "People" list
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
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