Will Matt Damon be the #1 searched person on Google in the US this year?
Last captured price
0.15¢
±0¢ · 24h
Implied probability 0.15%
$653.7 total volume · YES/NO
Low gotcha risk
Gotcha risk — resolution-rule assessment
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The rules clearly define resolution based on an official, objective source: Google's Year in Search United States People ranking for 2026. Resolution occurs as soon as the list is released by Google, and the navigation path to locate the data is explicitly outlined. A definitive cutoff date of March 31, 2027 is provided if the list is delayed or not published, with a predefined outcome specified for that scenario.
- Wording ambiguity
- Low
- Source discretion
- Low
- Timing risk
- Low
- Exceptional clauses
- Low
Liquidity
Moderate book at the daily check: a spread over 1¢, or less than $50K within 5¢ of the mid. Larger orders may move the price, so check the book before sizing.
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve according to the individual ranked #1 in Google’s official Year in Search United States "People" list for 2026. The specified list is expected to be displayed on the Google Trends Year in Search hub, with location selected to United States. The navigation procedure as of market creation involves going to trends.withgoogle.com/year-in-search/ and clicking through United States → Trending → People. The 2026 page is expected to appear using the same navigation once released (as the 2025 page currently shows the specified ranking). This market will resolve based on the specified list regardless of navigation procedure. This market may resolve as soon as the specified list for 2026 is released. If Google does not release the specified list by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other.” The resolution source for this market will be the specified list as published by Google.
Rules history
Rules history is not displayed yet.
Market explained
This market measures whether Matt Damon will be the number-one ranked individual on Google's official Year in Search United States "People" list for 2026. An unusual feature is the explicit fallback to "Other" if Google fails to publish the list by the specified deadline in early 2027.
How it resolves
The market resolves to Yes if Matt Damon is ranked #1 in Google's official Year in Search United States "People" list for 2026. The market resolves to No if another individual is ranked #1 on this list. The market resolves to Other if Google does not release the specified list by March 31, 2027, at 11:59 PM ET. Resolution occurs as soon as the 2026 list is released, and the outcome is determined exclusively by the specified list published by Google.
Key dates
- Release deadline: — The market resolves to Other if Google has not released the 2026 list by 11:59 PM ET on this date.
Resolution source
Google's official Year in Search United States "People" list for 2026
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
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