Will Wildberries announce bankruptcy before 2027?
Current price
6.15¢
−0.35¢ · 24h
Implied probability 6.15%
$150.4K total volume · YES/NO
Low gotcha risk
Gotcha risk — resolution-rule assessment
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The rules clearly specify the qualifying corporate entity (RVB LLC and its parents, subsidiaries, or successors) and explicitly define what constitutes an announcement versus non-qualifying exploratory or conditional statements. An announcement alone triggers resolution even if a formal bankruptcy filing is later withdrawn or dismissed. Resolution relies on official company channels, statements from authorized representatives, or authentic filings, though the decider also allows a wide consensus of credible reporting to establish that an official announcement or filing took place.
- Wording ambiguity
- Low
- Source discretion
- Med
- Timing risk
- Low
- Exceptional clauses
- Low
Liquidity
Moderate book at the daily check: a spread over 1¢, or less than $50K within 5¢ of the mid. Larger orders may move the price, so check the book before sizing.
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve to "Yes" if RVB LLC, which does business as Wildberries, or any corporate parent, subsidiary, or successor of RVB LLC, announces that it is petitioning or filing for or has filed for bankruptcy of any variety between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. An announcement will suffice for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of if or when the actual filing occurs, or if such a filing or petition is rejected, withdrawn, or otherwise not accepted. The announcement must be made through any of their official or verified channels, as a recorded or written statement by their CEO, legal representation, or other individual or team which officially represents RVB LLC, or through a filing confirmed to be authentic. Announcements that the company is considering bankruptcy, will file depending on the outcome of a subsequent event, or other statements that do not announce that a filing has or will definitively occur will not be sufficient to resolve this market. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from RVB LLC and its authorized representatives, however a wide consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Rules history
Rules history is not displayed yet.
Market explained
This market measures whether RVB LLC (Wildberries) or its parent, subsidiary, or successor officially announces a definitive bankruptcy filing before 2027. Notably, a definitive announcement alone triggers resolution even if an actual filing never takes place, is rejected, or is withdrawn.
How it resolves
The market resolves to Yes if RVB LLC, its corporate parent, subsidiary, or successor announces between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET that it is petitioning, filing, or has filed for any variety of bankruptcy. An announcement qualifies even if the filing never occurs, is rejected, or is withdrawn, provided it is definitive and made through official channels, authorized representatives, or a confirmed authentic filing. Statements that RVB LLC is merely considering bankruptcy or that a filing is contingent on future events do not count. The market resolves to No if no qualifying announcement is made by the deadline. Resolution is decided based on official information from RVB LLC and its authorized representatives, or a wide consensus of credible reporting.
Key dates
- End date: — Announcement deadline of December 31, 2026, at 11:59 PM ET
Resolution source
Official information from RVB LLC and its authorized representatives, or a wide consensus of credible reporting
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
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