Will Ioan Gruffudd be the #1 searched actor on Google this year?
Current price
0.05¢
±0¢ · 24h
Implied probability 0.05%
$1.2K total volume · YES/NO
Low gotcha risk
Gotcha risk — resolution-rule assessment
Show less
The resolution rules clearly specify a single, objective benchmark: the top-ranked individual on Google's official Year in Search Global Actors list for 2026. The source location on Google Trends is explicitly detailed, leaving minimal discretion to the resolver. A clear deadline of March 31, 2027, is established with an explicit fallback resolution if the official list is not released by that date.
- Wording ambiguity
- Low
- Source discretion
- Low
- Timing risk
- Low
- Exceptional clauses
- Low
Liquidity
Thin book — large orders will move this price. At the daily check: a spread of 5¢ or more (or none quoted), or less than $2K within 5¢ of the mid.
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve according to the individual ranked #1 in Google’s official Year in Search Global "Actors" list for 2026. The specified list is expected to be displayed on the Google Trends Year in Search hub, with location selected to Global. The navigation procedure as of market creation involves going to trends.withgoogle.com/year-in-search/ and clicking through Global → Entertainment → Actors. The 2026 page is expected to appear using the same navigation once released (as the 2025 page currently shows the specified ranking). This market will resolve based on the specified list regardless of navigation procedure. This market may resolve as soon as the specified list for 2026 is released. If Google does not release the specified list by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other.” The resolution source for this market will be the specified list as published by Google.
Rules history
Rules history is not displayed yet.
Market explained
This market measures whether Ioan Gruffudd will rank as the #1 individual on Google's official Year in Search Global "Actors" list for 2026.
How it resolves
The market resolves to Yes if Ioan Gruffudd is ranked #1 in Google's official Year in Search Global "Actors" list for 2026. The market resolves to No if another individual is ranked #1 on that list. The market resolves to Other if Google does not release the specified list by March 31, 2027, at 11:59 PM ET. Resolution relies on the specified list published by Google on its Year in Search hub, regardless of the navigation procedure used to access it. The market may resolve as soon as the 2026 list is released.
Key dates
- List release deadline: — If Google does not release the 2026 list by 11:59 PM ET on this date, the market resolves to Other.
Resolution source
Google’s official Year in Search Global "Actors" list for 2026
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
Community forecast
Community forecasting arrives with the forecast tools.