Will New Democracy (ND) win the most seats in the next Greek parliamentary elections?
Gotcha risk
Low2 of 4 factors flagged
Watch for: The resolution rules clearly specify how the winning party will be determined based on parliamentary seats won in the next election.
Read the full assessment
The resolution rules clearly specify how the winning party will be determined based on parliamentary seats won in the next election. While resolution primary relies on a consensus of credible reporting, official Greek government results serve as the explicit fallback in cases of ambiguity. The rules also provide thorough edge-case mechanisms, including a multi-step tie-breaker (valid vote count followed by alphabetical order of party abbreviation) and specific instructions for how coalition seats are aggregated and assigned to listed parties. A definitive cutoff date of December 31, 2027, resolves any unresolved election or ambiguity to Other.
- Resolver
- Medium
- Timing
- Low
- Wording
- Low
- Exceptions
- Medium
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
Current price
94%
chance↔ ±0 pts · 24h
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
Parliamentary elections to elect the Hellenic Parliament are scheduled to be held before July 25, 2027. This market will resolve to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the Hellenic Parliament as a result of the next Greek parliamentary election. If voting in the specified election does not occur or there continues to be ambiguity in the results as reported by the Greek government by December 31, 2027, this market will resolve to "Other". In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party that received a greater number of valid votes. In the event that results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party whose abbreviation as listed in this market appears first in alphabetical order. This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party. Independent candidates and the formation of parliamentary groups will not be considered. This market will resolve based on the results of the elections, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. In the case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on the results as reported by the Greek government. Note: If a listed party contests the election as part of a coalition with one or more parties not listed in this market, the market corresponding to the listed party will represent the coalition and will count all seats won by the coalition collectively. If two or more listed parties contest the election as a jointly listed coalition, with or without additional parties not listed in this market, the market corresponding to the party within that coalition that won the most seats in the previous election will represent the coalition and will count all seats won by the coalition collectively. If such a coalition dissolves, each market will again represent its respective party individually.
Market explained
This market measures whether New Democracy (ND) wins the most seats in the next Greek parliamentary elections. The resolution includes specific rules for ties, coalitions, and ambiguity in results.
How it resolves
This market resolves Yes if New Democracy (ND) wins the greatest number of seats in the Hellenic Parliament in the next Greek parliamentary election. This market resolves No if any other political party wins the greatest number of seats. If there is a tie for the most seats, the market resolves in favor of the party that received a greater number of valid votes. If there is still a tie, the market resolves in favor of the party whose abbreviation appears first alphabetically. If voting does not occur or there is ambiguity in the results as reported by the Greek government by December 31, 2027, this market resolves to Other. The resolution is based solely on the number of seats won by the named party; independent candidates and parliamentary groups are not considered. If a listed party contests as part of a coalition, the market represents the coalition and counts all seats won by it. If two or more listed parties form a coalition, the market corresponding to the party with the most seats in the previous election represents the coalition. Resolution is based on a consensus of credible reporting, or solely on Greek government reports in case of ambiguity.
Resolution source
Greek government
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-2.5-flash ·