Will Kyriakos Mitsotakis be the next Prime Minister of Greece?
Gotcha risk
Low2 of 4 factors flagged
Watch for: The market clearly defines resolution around the individual formally sworn in as Prime Minister following the next parliamentary election, explicitly excluding interim or caretaker appointments.
Read the full assessment
The market clearly defines resolution around the individual formally sworn in as Prime Minister following the next parliamentary election, explicitly excluding interim or caretaker appointments. Resolution relies primarily on credible media consensus with an official government fallback if needed. Participants should note the explicit exclusion of caretaker prime ministers, which frequently occur in Greek coalition transitions, and the fixed long-stop expiry date of December 31, 2027.
- Resolver
- Medium
- Timing
- Low
- Wording
- Low
- Exceptions
- Medium
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
Current price
70%
chance▲ +1 pts · 24h
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve to the next individual who is officially appointed and sworn in as Prime Minister of Greece following the next parliamentary election. If an election is called early, this market will immediately resolve to the individual who is officially appointed and sworn in after that election. To count for resolution, the individual must be formally sworn-in by the specified date. Any interim or caretaker Prime Minister will not count toward the resolution of this market. If no such Prime Minister takes office by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”. This market will resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official information from the Greek government.
Market explained
This market measures whether Kyriakos Mitsotakis will be officially appointed and sworn in as the next Prime Minister of Greece following the next parliamentary election, excluding interim or caretaker prime ministers.
How it resolves
The market resolves to Yes if Kyriakos Mitsotakis is officially appointed and sworn in as Prime Minister of Greece following the next parliamentary election, including an early election. Interim or caretaker Prime Ministers do not count. The market resolves to No if another individual is officially appointed and sworn in as Prime Minister following that election. The market resolves to Other if no such Prime Minister takes office by December 31, 2027, at 11:59 PM ET. Resolution is determined by a consensus of credible reporting, or solely by official information from the Greek government if ambiguity arises.
Resolution source
Consensus of credible reporting, or official information from the Greek government if there is ambiguity.
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·