Will CXMT be removed from Chinese Military Companies list by June 30, 2027?
Gotcha risk
Low0 of 4 factors flagged
Watch for: The rules provide clear and explicit criteria for what constitutes a qualifying removal from the Section 1260H list.
Read the full assessment
The rules provide clear and explicit criteria for what constitutes a qualifying removal from the Section 1260H list. Official publications by the U.S. Department of Defense in the Federal Register or on its website serve as the primary authoritative benchmark, with clear fallback to consensus reporting if needed. Edge cases such as corporate restructurings, name changes, subsidiary delistings, and enforcement suspensions without delisting are explicitly defined, minimizing ambiguity and decider discretion.
- Resolver
- Low
- Timing
- Low
- Wording
- Low
- Exceptions
- Low
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
Current price
27%
chance▲ +1.5 pts · 24h
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the specified company is fully removed from the list entitled “Entities Identified as Chinese Military Companies Operating in the United States in Accordance with Section 1260H of the William M. (Mac) Thornberry National Defense Authorization Act for Fiscal Year 2021” by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A qualifying removal occurs when the specified company named in the list on June 8, 2026 (available here: https://www.war.gov/News/Releases/Release/Article/4511232/dow-releases-list-of-chinese-military-companies-in-accordance-with-section-1260/) no longer appears on an updated official Section 1260H list. A qualifying removal must be reflected in a subsequent list published by the U.S. Department of Defense in the Federal Register or on its official website, in an official DoD announcement or Federal Register notice of delisting. Removal of a subsidiary or affiliate entry while the specified company remains listed will not qualify. Removal of a company will qualify even if formerly affiliated subsidiaries remain listed as separate entries. An entity that ceases to appear solely due to renaming, merger with another listed entity, or transfer of the designation to a successor, parent, or affiliate entity will not be considered removed. A removal will qualify regardless of whether it is later retracted or withdrawn. For the purposes of this market, a company’s status will be entirely determined by its presence on the aforementioned list. If the enforcement of its designation is suspended without being removed from the aforementioned list, that will not qualify as a removal. If no qualifying announcement or list republishing occurs by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “No”. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting and official information from the Department of Defense (https://www.defense.gov) (a.k.a. Department of War, https://www.war.gov).
Market explained
This market measures whether CXMT is fully removed from the U.S. Department of Defense's Section 1260H Chinese Military Companies list by June 30, 2027.
How it resolves
The market resolves to Yes if CXMT is fully removed from the Section 1260H list by June 30, 2027, at 11:59 PM ET. A qualifying removal must be reflected in an updated list published in the Federal Register, on the DoD official website, or via an official DoD delisting announcement or Federal Register notice. A removal qualifies even if later retracted, and even if formerly affiliated subsidiaries remain listed. Mergers, renamings, designation transfers to successors/affiliates, suspension of enforcement without list removal, or the removal of subsidiaries while the parent remains do not qualify. The market resolves to No if no qualifying removal or republishing occurs by the deadline. The resolution source is a consensus of credible reporting and official information from the Department of Defense.
Resolution source
Consensus of credible reporting and official information from the Department of Defense (defense.gov / war.gov)
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·