Will Young Kim win the CA-40 House seat?
Current price
46¢
+1¢ · 24h
Implied probability 46%
$8K total volume · YES/NO
Low gotcha risk
Gotcha risk — resolution-rule assessment
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The market is straightforward, resolving based on which candidate wins the CA-40 seat in the 2026 midterm elections. The primary resolution relies on a consensus of credible reporting, which leaves some discretion to the resolver, but there is an explicit official backup in the Federal Election Commission if reports conflict or the outcome is contested. California vote counting can take several weeks, but because the ultimate decider is the official election result, timing risk is standard for a congressional election.
- Wording ambiguity
- Low
- Source discretion
- Med
- Timing risk
- Low
- Exceptional clauses
- Low
Liquidity
Moderate book at the daily check: a spread over 1¢, or less than $50K within 5¢ of the mid. Larger orders may move the price, so check the book before sizing.
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve according to the individual who wins the CA-40 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Rules history
Rules history is not displayed yet.
Market explained
This market measures whether Young Kim will win the election for the California's 40th congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives during the 2026 midterm elections.
How it resolves
The market resolves Yes if Young Kim wins the CA-40 congressional district seat in the 2026 midterm elections. The market resolves No if another individual wins the seat. The outcome is determined by a consensus of credible reporting. If credible reporting is ambiguous, the outcome is determined solely by the official results reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission.
Key dates
- Midterm election date: — The date on which the 2026 midterm elections take place.
Resolution source
Consensus of credible reporting, with the Federal Election Commission as the fallback for ambiguous results
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
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