Will Angélica María Dueñas win the CA-29 House seat?
Current price
4.9¢
Implied probability 4.9%
$4.2K total volume · YES/NO
Low gotcha risk
Gotcha risk — resolution-rule assessment
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This market resolves on a straightforward binary event: whether a specific candidate wins California's 29th congressional district seat in the 2026 midterm elections. Resolution relies first on a consensus of credible reporting, which leaves some latitude for deciders to determine when consensus exists, but includes a concrete fallback to official results from the Federal Election Commission if any ambiguity arises. Election certifications can take time, but the outcome itself is definitive and governed by official election data without hidden exceptions or atypical clauses.
- Wording ambiguity
- Low
- Source discretion
- Med
- Timing risk
- Low
- Exceptional clauses
- Low
Liquidity
Tradability has not been assessed for this market.
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve according to the individual who wins the CA-29 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Rules history
Rules history is not displayed yet.
Market explained
This market measures whether Angélica María Dueñas wins the U.S. House of Representatives seat for California's 29th congressional district in the 2026 midterm elections.
How it resolves
The market resolves Yes if Angélica María Dueñas wins the CA-29 House seat in the 2026 midterm elections. The market resolves No if any other individual wins the seat. The outcome is determined by a consensus of credible reporting. If ambiguity arises, resolution will rely solely on official results reported by the United States government via the Federal Election Commission.
Key dates
- 2026 Midterm Elections: — Election day when the CA-29 congressional race takes place.
Resolution source
Consensus of credible reporting, or the Federal Election Commission if there is ambiguity
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
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