Will Eric Jones win the CA-04 House seat?
Current price
20¢
+2.5¢ · 24h
Implied probability 20%
$5.5K total volume · YES/NO
Low gotcha risk
Gotcha risk — resolution-rule assessment
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This market resolves on a straightforward election outcome for California's 4th congressional district in the 2026 midterms. Resolution relies primarily on a consensus of credible reporting, with official Federal Election Commission certified data acting as a definitive fallback if any reporting ambiguity arises. Note that official election results and FEC filings can take weeks or months to finalize, though in clear-cut races consensus reporting will allow for earlier settlement without unusual procedural carve-outs.
- Wording ambiguity
- Low
- Source discretion
- Med
- Timing risk
- Low
- Exceptional clauses
- Low
Liquidity
Moderate book at the daily check: a spread over 1¢, or less than $50K within 5¢ of the mid. Larger orders may move the price, so check the book before sizing.
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve according to the individual who wins the CA-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Rules history
Rules history is not displayed yet.
Market explained
This market measures whether Eric Jones will win the election for the U.S. House of Representatives seat representing California's 4th congressional district in the 2026 midterm elections.
How it resolves
The market resolves to Yes if Eric Jones wins the CA-04 congressional district seat in the 2026 midterm elections. The market resolves to No if another candidate wins the seat. Resolution is determined by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, the market resolves solely based on official results reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission.
Key dates
- Midterm elections date: — The date the midterm elections take place as specified in the rules.
Resolution source
Consensus of credible reporting, with official results from the Federal Election Commission as the deciding source if ambiguity arises
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
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