California wealth tax defeats opposing propositions?
Last captured price
14¢
+0.5¢ · 24h
Implied probability 14%
$1.3K total volume · YES/NO
Low gotcha risk
Gotcha risk — resolution-rule assessment
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The rules clearly specify the conditions required for a Yes outcome: Proposition 40 must pass with a majority and receive more affirmative votes individually than Propositions 41 and 42. Edge cases such as renumbering, measures appearing on different ballots, subsequent court invalidations, and definitive result deadlines (July 31, 2027) are explicitly detailed. Official certification from the California Secretary of State serves as the ultimate resolution source, leaving very little room for decider latitude or ambiguity.
- Wording ambiguity
- Low
- Source discretion
- Low
- Timing risk
- Low
- Exceptional clauses
- Low
Liquidity
Moderate book at the daily check: a spread over 1¢, or less than $50K within 5¢ of the mid. Larger orders may move the price, so check the book before sizing.
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
Propositions 40, 41, and 42 are California ballot measures currently scheduled for voting on November 3, 2026. Proposition 40 would apply a one-time 5% wealth tax on the assets of roughly 200 California billionaires, to be paid over five years. Proposition 41 would audit new tax spending and ban new taxes from being exempt from the state spending cap. Proposition 42 would prevent retroactive taxes and new taxes on personal property. Under the California Constitution, Article II, Section 10, subdivision (b), “if provisions of two or more measures approved at the same election conflict, the provisions of the measure receiving the highest number of affirmative votes shall prevail.” Therefore, if either Proposition 41 or 42 receive a higher number of affirmative votes than Proposition 40, its proposed wealth tax would not take effect. This market will resolve to “Yes” if Proposition 40 is approved by a majority of voters and receives more valid affirmative votes than both Proposition 41 and Proposition 42 individually at the specified election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. If any of the specified ballot measures are renumbered, the renumbered ballot measure will count as its successor for the purposes of this market. If Proposition 40 is not approved by a majority of voters at the specified election, this market will resolve to "No". The combined totals of valid affirmative votes received by both Propositions 41 and 42 will have no bearing on resolution of this market. This market will only consider the individually received totals of valid affirmative votes by both Propositions 41 and 42 for resolution. If Proposition 40 is approved by a majority of voters and voting on Proposition 40 happens at a different time than voting on both Propositions 41 and 42, this market will resolve to “Yes”. If Proposition 40 is approved by a majority of voters and is only challenged by one of Propositions 41 or 42 on the same ballot, this market will resolve according to whether Proposition 40 receives more valid affirmative votes than the opposing measure appearing on the same ballot. If Proposition 40 defeats the opposing measures on the same ballot, but is later made ineffective by a court decision or subsequent ballot measure, that will have no bearing on resolution of this market. If voting on Proposition 40 does not occur, or the results thereof are not known definitively, by July 31, 2027, this market will resolve to “No”. This market will resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official information from the State of California, including the California Secretary of State (https://www.sos.ca.gov/).
Rules history
Rules history is not displayed yet.
Market explained
This market measures whether California's Proposition 40 wealth tax measure wins majority approval and secures more affirmative votes than competing Propositions 41 and 42.
How it resolves
The market resolves to Yes if Proposition 40 is approved by a majority of voters and receives more valid affirmative votes individually than both Proposition 41 and Proposition 42 at the election. If voting on Proposition 40 occurs at a different time than both competing measures, majority approval alone resolves Yes. If only one competing measure appears alongside it, Proposition 40 must receive more affirmative votes than that single measure. Renumbered measures count as successors, and later court invalidations are disregarded. The market resolves to No if Proposition 40 is not approved by a majority, if it fails to receive more votes than either opposing measure individually, or if voting does not occur or definitive results are not known by July 31, 2027. Resolution is decided by a consensus of credible reporting, with official information from the State of California, including the California Secretary of State, resolving any ambiguity.
Key dates
- Scheduled election date: — Date Propositions 40, 41, and 42 are scheduled for voting
- Definitive results deadline: — Deadline for voting to occur and results to be known definitively, otherwise resolves No
Resolution source
Consensus of credible reporting, or official information from the State of California (including the California Secretary of State)
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
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