Iran charges Hormuz fees by October 31?
Outcome
No
Polymarket resolved this market to No.
No price before the listed close date
- 7 days before
- Not captured
- 24 hours before
- 1 hour before
Counted back from the listed close date, ; price capture stops 6 hours after it. Midpoint prices known at each point; implied probability in cents. Times in UTC.
Medium gotcha risk
Gotcha risk at close — resolution-rule assessment
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Resolution requires two distinct conditions to occur before the deadline: an official announcement from the Iranian government and a consensus of credible reporting confirming that fee collection has actively begun. Because no specific official registry or designated news outlet is named to verify collection, the decider must interpret broad media reports to determine whether payments are mandatory in practice across commercial vessels rather than isolated incidents or standard maritime charges. Holders should be aware that if an announcement happens without verified implementation and collection within the timeframe, the market will resolve negatively.
- Wording ambiguity
- Med
- Source discretion
- High
- Timing risk
- Low
- Exceptional clauses
- Low
AI-generated before close · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
Why it moved before close
No moves were explained in the 7 days before the listed close date.
Market explained before close
This market measures whether Iran officially announces and begins collecting mandatory passage or access fees from commercial vessels transiting the Strait of Hormuz by October 31, 2026.
How it resolves
The market resolves to Yes if two conditions are met before October 31, 2026, at 11:59 PM ET: Iran officially announces a fee policy applying generally to all or a defined subcategory of commercial vessels, and credible reporting confirms fee collection has begun. Qualifying charges include tolls, maritime fees, service charges, environmental fees, or security fees that are mandatory in practice for transit or access. Isolated demanded charges, normal port fees, customs duties, and fees charged solely by non-Iranian entities do not qualify. The market resolves to No if these criteria are not met by the deadline. Resolution is determined by official announcements from the Iranian government and a consensus of credible reporting.
Key dates
- Resolution deadline: — Deadline by 11:59 PM ET for Iran to announce and begin collecting qualifying fees.
Resolution source
Official announcements from the government of Iran and consensus of credible reporting
AI-generated before close · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
Resolution rules at close
This market resolves to “Yes” if the Iranian government officially announces and begins collecting fees, tolls, charges, tariffs, or similar payments from commercial vessels which are mandatory for passage through or access to the Strait of Hormuz between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market resolves to “No.” A qualifying fee must be an announced policy which applies generally to all commercial vessels, or a defined subcategory of commercial vessels (e.g., vessels flagged to the US and its allies). Isolated demanded charges will not qualify. A fee is mandatory if, in practice, affected commercial vessels cannot transit or access the Strait of Hormuz without paying it, regardless of whether Iran characterizes the payment as voluntary or a fee for services. Fees described as tolls, maritime fees, service charges, environmental fees, security fees, insurance charges, etc. will qualify provided they are recognized as mandatory for passage through or access to the Strait of Hormuz by a consensus of credible reporting (e.g., a mandatory insurance fee charged by the Iranian Persian Gulf Strait Authority would qualify). Both of the following are required to occur prior to the specified date, 11:59 PM ET to satisfy this market’s resolution criteria: 1) An official announcement from the Iranian government that such a fee is being, or will be, implemented. 2) A consensus of credible reporting that collection of the fee has begun. Fees charged by Oman, the United Arab Emirates, shipping insurers, private companies, or other non-Iranian entities do not qualify unless charged jointly with Iran, or if Iran directly receives the fee or controls the charging entity. Normal port fees, customs duties, sanctions-related costs, or shipping surcharges do not alone qualify. The resolution sources will be official announcements from the government of Iran and consensus of credible reporting.
About this page
A record of how this market resolved. The prices, analysis and rules shown here come from data Brierpoint captured or generated before close.