Will Orlando Sanchez win the 2026 Harris County Judge election?
Current price
8.2¢
−1.65¢ · 24h
Implied probability 8.2%
$5.7K total volume · YES/NO
Low gotcha risk
Gotcha risk — resolution-rule assessment
Show less
This market resolves clearly based on whether Orlando Sanchez wins the 2026 election to become the next Harris County Judge. The rules specify that temporary or interim appointments prior to the election do not qualify. Resolution relies first on a consensus of credible reporting, with official state and county election certifications as a fallback if reporting is unclear. There is a broad safety deadline extending to April 30, 2027, resolving to Other if results are unknown by that point, providing ample time for canvassing and legal challenges.
- Wording ambiguity
- Low
- Source discretion
- Med
- Timing risk
- Low
- Exceptional clauses
- Low
Liquidity
Moderate book at the daily check: a spread over 1¢, or less than $50K within 5¢ of the mid. Larger orders may move the price, so check the book before sizing.
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
The 2026 Harris County Judge election will be held on November 3, 2026, to elect the County Judge of Harris County, TX. This market will resolve according to the candidate who becomes the next County Judge of Harris County as a result of this election. Temporary, interim, or placeholder County Judges appointed before the election will not be considered. If the result of this election isn't known by April 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to “Other.” The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting; however, if there is any ambiguity in the results, this market will resolve according to official information from the State of Texas and Harris County.
Rules history
Rules history is not displayed yet.
Market explained
This market measures whether Orlando Sanchez will win the 2026 election to become the next County Judge of Harris County, Texas.
How it resolves
The market resolves to Yes if Orlando Sanchez becomes the next Harris County Judge as a result of the 2026 election. The market resolves to No if another candidate wins the election. Temporary, interim, or placeholder County Judges appointed before the election do not count. The market resolves to Other if the election result is not known by April 30, 2027, at 11:59 PM ET. Resolution is decided by a consensus of credible reporting, with official information from the State of Texas and Harris County used if there is ambiguity.
Key dates
- Election day: — Date of the 2026 Harris County Judge election
- Resolution deadline: — Market resolves to Other if the outcome is unknown by 11:59 PM ET
Resolution source
Consensus of credible reporting, with official information from the State of Texas and Harris County as fallback
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
Community forecast
Community forecasting arrives with the forecast tools.