Will Republicans hold ≤46 Senate seats and ≤192 House seats after the 2026 midterms?
Current price
27.55¢
Implied probability 27.55%
$12.4K total volume · YES/NO
Low gotcha risk
Gotcha risk — resolution-rule assessment
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The rules clearly specify how both Senate and House seats are counted, including detailed instructions for uncontested seats, vacancies, runoffs, and post-election party switches. Official election outcomes from state authorities and the United States Congress serve as the basis for seat totals. Participants should note that final resolution may take weeks or extend until early January if runoffs occur or if independent members-elect have not formally declared which party they intend to caucus with before the deadline.
- Wording ambiguity
- Low
- Source discretion
- Low
- Timing risk
- Med
- Exceptional clauses
- Low
Liquidity
Thin book — large orders will move this price. At the daily check: a spread of 5¢ or more (or none quoted), or less than $2K within 5¢ of the mid.
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026. This market will resolve according to the combined outcome of the Republican Party’s seat count in the US House of Representatives and the US Senate as a result of the 2026 midterm elections. The Senate seat count includes all regular and special Senate elections that determine representation in the upcoming 120th Congress and are scheduled to take place in November 2026 as of October 31, 2026. Vacant Senate seats for which no election or special election to fill the seat is scheduled to take place in November 2026 as of October 31, 2026 will be treated as held by the party affiliation of the most recent member to hold that seat. The House seat count includes all House elections in the 2026 United States midterm election that elect voting members and determine representation in the upcoming 120th Congress. Where a Senate or House seat is decided by a runoff, the runoff result will determine attribution of that seat, even if it takes place after November 2026. For seats contested in the specified election, seats are attributed to the party under which the member was elected. If a member-elect changes party affiliation, or vacates their seat, between election day and the formal organization of Congress, the seat is attributed to the party under which the member was elected. For seats not contested in the specified election, seats are attributed to the party that holds the seat as of the date of the election. If a current sitting member of the U.S. Senate who is not up for election changes party affiliation or vacates their seat after the date of the election, the seat is attributed to the party under which the member was affiliated at the time of the election. Senate and House members elected as independents who formally caucus with, or, for newly elected members, who announce their intent to caucus with a party are included in that party’s count. If the caucus decisions of members of the Senate or House elected as independents cannot be determined on the date of the election, this market may remain open until the earlier of (i) an announcement from the relevant members of their intents to caucus, or (ii) January 4th, 11:59 PM ET of the following calendar year. If no such announcement is made by January 4th, 11:59 PM ET of the following calendar year, the member will not count towards the seat count of any party. The resolution sources for this market will be official information from relevant state electoral authorities, the United States Congress, and a consensus of credible reporting.
Rules history
Rules history is not displayed yet.
Market explained
This market measures whether the Republican Party will win or hold 46 or fewer U.S. Senate seats and 192 or fewer U.S. House seats following the 2026 midterm elections for the 120th Congress.
How it resolves
The market resolves to Yes if Republicans hold 46 or fewer Senate seats and 192 or fewer House seats following the 2026 midterms. The market resolves to No if Republicans hold more than 46 Senate seats, more than 192 House seats, or both. Contested seats are attributed to the party under which members were elected, even if they vacate or switch parties before Congress organizes. Non-contested Senate seats are attributed based on affiliation on election day. Runoff outcomes are included even if held after November 2026. Independents who caucus or announce intent to caucus with a party count toward that party. If an independent's caucus choice is unknown, the market may wait until an announcement or January 4th at 11:59 PM ET. Official information from state electoral authorities, the U.S. Congress, and a consensus of credible reporting decide the outcome.
Key dates
- Senate election schedule cutoff: — Cutoff date for determining scheduled Senate regular and special elections.
- Midterm election date: — Date of the 2026 U.S. midterm elections.
- Caucus announcement deadline: January 4th, 11:59 PM ET of the following calendar year is the deadline for independent caucus attribution.
Resolution source
Official information from relevant state electoral authorities, the United States Congress, and a consensus of credible reporting
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
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