Will Base launch a token by September 30, 2026?
Outcome
No
Polymarket resolved this market to No.
No price before the listed close date
- 7 days before
- 24 hours before
- 1 hour before
Counted back from the listed close date, ; price capture stops 6 hours after it. Midpoint prices known at each point; implied probability in cents. Times in UTC.
Low gotcha risk
Gotcha risk at close — resolution-rule assessment
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The rules clearly define what qualifies as a token launch by requiring the token to be officially issued by Base and actively, publicly tradable before the specified deadline. Explicit exclusions are made for announcements, stablecoins, memecoins, liquid staking tokens, and synthetics, preventing ambiguity around non-native asset launches. The primary resolution source is Base's official social channel, though the fallback to a consensus of credible reporting introduces slight discretion if trading status is disputed.
- Wording ambiguity
- Low
- Source discretion
- Med
- Timing risk
- Low
- Exceptional clauses
- Low
AI-generated before close · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
Why it moved before close
No moves were explained in the 7 days before the listed close date.
Market explained before close
This market measures whether Base will officially launch an actively and publicly tradable token by September 30, 2026.
How it resolves
The market resolves to Yes if Base officially launches an actively and publicly tradable token by 11:59 PM ET on September 30, 2026. Token announcements alone do not qualify, and stablecoins, memecoins, liquid staking tokens (LSTs), and synthetic tokens are excluded. The market resolves to No if a qualifying token is not launched by the deadline. Resolution is decided based on official information from Base or a consensus of credible reporting.
Key dates
- Token launch deadline: — 11:59 PM ET deadline for Base to officially launch a token.
Resolution source
Information from Base or a consensus of credible reporting
AI-generated before close · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
Resolution rules at close
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Base officially launches a token by 11:59 PM ET on the date specified in the title. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Only an official token launched by Base will qualify. Stablecoins, memecoins, LSTs and synthetic tokens will not count. The token must be actively and publicly tradable. Announcements alone do not qualify. The primary resolution source for this market will be information from Base (https://x.com/base), however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
About this page
A record of how this market resolved. The prices, analysis and rules shown here come from data Brierpoint captured or generated before close.