Is Earth flat?
Current price
0.5¢
±0¢ · 24h
Implied probability 0.5%
$61K total volume · YES/NO
Medium gotcha risk
Gotcha risk — resolution-rule assessment
Show less
This market resolves based on whether conclusive proof is published before the specified deadline, defaulting to a negative outcome otherwise. The primary risk stems from the lack of a named official scientific body or specific evidentiary standard, relying instead on decider judgment regarding what constitutes conclusive proof and what qualifies as a consensus of credible reporting. While the deadline is clear and the default outcome is standard, the criteria for acceptable proof remain subjective.
- Wording ambiguity
- Med
- Source discretion
- High
- Timing risk
- Low
- Exceptional clauses
- Low
Liquidity
Deep book at the daily check: a spread of 1¢ or less and at least $50K of orders within 5¢ of the mid.
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve to "Yes" if conclusive proof that the earth is flat becomes public by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Rules history
Rules history is not displayed yet.
Market explained
This market measures whether conclusive proof that the Earth is flat becomes publicly available by the end of 2026.
How it resolves
The market resolves to Yes if conclusive proof that the Earth is flat becomes public by December 31, 2026, at 11:59 PM ET. The market resolves to No if no such conclusive proof is made public by this cutoff. The outcome is determined by a consensus of credible reporting.
Key dates
- Resolution deadline: — Proof must become public by 11:59 PM ET on this date.
Resolution source
A consensus of credible reporting
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
Community forecast
Community forecasting arrives with the forecast tools.