Will Anthropic IPO by October 31, 2026?
Current price
0.25¢
+0.1¢ · 24h
Implied probability 0.25%
$1.3M total volume · YES/NO
Low gotcha risk
Gotcha risk — resolution-rule assessment
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The resolution criteria are clearly defined, requiring Anthropic shares to be listed and open for trading on a public exchange by a specific cutoff time. Official SEC filings, exchange notices, and corporate press releases serve as the primary sources, leaving minimal room for subjective judgment. Participants should note the specific clause dictating that an acquisition by an already public company triggers an immediate resolution to No prior to the deadline.
- Wording ambiguity
- Low
- Source discretion
- Low
- Timing risk
- Low
- Exceptional clauses
- Med
Liquidity
Deep book at the daily check: a spread of 1¢ or less and at least $50K of orders within 5¢ of the mid.
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Anthropic shares are listed on a public securities exchange and open for trading by 11:59 PM ET on the listed date. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." If Anthropic is acquired by another company that is already public, this market will immediately resolve to "No." The primary resolution source for this market is official filings and announcements from Anthropic and the relevant securities exchange on which the shares are listed, including SEC filings (e.g., Form S-1, Form 8-A), exchange listing confirmations, and official press releases from Anthropic; however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Rules history
Rules history is not displayed yet.
Market explained
This market measures whether Anthropic will complete an initial public offering (IPO) and have its shares trading publicly by October 31, 2026. An acquisition by an already public company triggers an immediate resolution against the IPO.
How it resolves
The market resolves to Yes if Anthropic shares are listed on a public securities exchange and open for trading by 11:59 PM ET on October 31, 2026. The market resolves to No if Anthropic is acquired by another company that is already public, which triggers an immediate No resolution, or if shares are not listed and open for trading by the deadline. The resolution is determined using official filings and announcements from Anthropic and the relevant securities exchange (such as Form S-1, Form 8-A, exchange listing confirmations, and press releases), or a consensus of credible reporting.
Key dates
- Resolution deadline: — Shares must be listed and open for trading by 11:59 PM ET.
Resolution source
Official filings and announcements from Anthropic and the relevant securities exchange (including SEC filings and official press releases), or a consensus of credible reporting.
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