Will Anthropic IPO by December 31, 2026?
Last captured price
73.5¢
−1¢ · 24h
Implied probability 73.5%
$1.2M total volume · YES/NO
Low gotcha risk
Gotcha risk — resolution-rule assessment
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The market has straightforward criteria requiring Anthropic shares to be publicly listed and actively trading by the stated deadline, verified primarily through official regulatory filings such as SEC documentation and exchange confirmations. A key rule to note is an early resolution provision: if Anthropic is acquired by a publicly traded company before the deadline, the market immediately resolves to No rather than remaining open.
- Wording ambiguity
- Low
- Source discretion
- Low
- Timing risk
- Low
- Exceptional clauses
- Med
Liquidity
Moderate book at the daily check: a spread over 1¢, or less than $50K within 5¢ of the mid. Larger orders may move the price, so check the book before sizing.
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Anthropic shares are listed on a public securities exchange and open for trading by 11:59 PM ET on the listed date. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." If Anthropic is acquired by another company that is already public, this market will immediately resolve to "No." The primary resolution source for this market is official filings and announcements from Anthropic and the relevant securities exchange on which the shares are listed, including SEC filings (e.g., Form S-1, Form 8-A), exchange listing confirmations, and official press releases from Anthropic; however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Rules history
Rules history is not displayed yet.
Market explained
This market measures whether Anthropic lists its shares on a public securities exchange and begins public trading by December 31, 2026.
How it resolves
The market resolves to Yes if Anthropic shares are listed on a public securities exchange and open for trading by 11:59 PM ET on December 31, 2026. The market resolves to No if Anthropic shares are not listed and open for trading by the deadline. The market resolves immediately to No if Anthropic is acquired by an already public company. Resolution is determined using official filings and announcements from Anthropic and the relevant exchange (such as SEC Form S-1, Form 8-A, exchange listing confirmations, and press releases), or a consensus of credible reporting.
Key dates
- Trading deadline: — Anthropic shares must be listed and open for trading by 11:59 PM ET.
Resolution source
Official filings and announcements from Anthropic and the relevant securities exchange (including SEC filings, exchange confirmations, and press releases), or a consensus of credible reporting
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
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