Will Anthropic IPO by September 30, 2026?
Outcome
No
Polymarket resolved this market to No.
No price before the listed close date
- 7 days before
- 24 hours before
- 1 hour before
Counted back from the listed close date, ; price capture stops 6 hours after it. Midpoint prices known at each point; implied probability in cents. Times in UTC.
Low gotcha risk
Gotcha risk at close — resolution-rule assessment
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The resolution criteria clearly specify that Anthropic shares must be listed and open for trading on a public securities exchange by the stated deadline of 11:59 PM ET on September 30, 2026. The market relies primarily on official SEC filings and exchange confirmations. A key condition to note is the early resolution rule: if Anthropic is acquired by a publicly traded company before an IPO takes place, the market immediately resolves to No.
- Wording ambiguity
- Low
- Source discretion
- Low
- Timing risk
- Low
- Exceptional clauses
- Med
AI-generated before close · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
Why it moved before close
No moves were explained in the 7 days before the listed close date.
Market explained before close
This market measures whether Anthropic holds an initial public offering (IPO) and begins trading on a public securities exchange by September 30, 2026.
How it resolves
The market resolves to Yes if Anthropic shares are listed on a public securities exchange and open for trading by 11:59 PM ET on September 30, 2026. The market resolves to No if this condition is not met by the deadline. The market resolves immediately to No if Anthropic is acquired by an already public company. Resolution is decided using official filings and announcements from Anthropic and the relevant exchange (such as SEC Form S-1 or Form 8-A, listing confirmations, and press releases), with a consensus of credible reporting also permitted.
Key dates
- Resolution deadline: — Latest date for shares to be listed and open for trading to resolve Yes
Resolution source
Official filings and announcements from Anthropic and the relevant securities exchange (including SEC filings and official press releases), or a consensus of credible reporting
AI-generated before close · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
Resolution rules at close
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Anthropic shares are listed on a public securities exchange and open for trading by 11:59 PM ET on the listed date. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." If Anthropic is acquired by another company that is already public, this market will immediately resolve to "No." The primary resolution source for this market is official filings and announcements from Anthropic and the relevant securities exchange on which the shares are listed, including SEC filings (e.g., Form S-1, Form 8-A), exchange listing confirmations, and official press releases from Anthropic; however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
About this page
A record of how this market resolved. The prices, analysis and rules shown here come from data Brierpoint captured or generated before close.