Will Iran recognize Israel by December 31?
Current price
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Low gotcha risk
Gotcha risk — resolution-rule assessment
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The resolution criteria clearly specify that formal recognition of Israel as a state is required, explicitly excluding mere statements of intent. The deadline is set to December 31, 2026, at 11:59 PM ET, resolving the missing year in the main title. Resolution relies primarily on official government communications, though credible reporting consensus may be evaluated if government confirmation is not directly available.
- Wording ambiguity
- Low
- Source discretion
- Med
- Timing risk
- Low
- Exceptional clauses
- Low
Liquidity
No order-book snapshots have been captured for this market’s primary token.
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed country officially recognizes Israel as a state between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An announcement of intentions will not suffice to resolve this market to "Yes." Only a government's formal recognition of the State of Israel will count toward a “Yes” resolution for this market. The primary resolution source for this market will be official government information. However, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Rules history
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Market explained
This market measures whether Iran formally and officially recognizes Israel as a state by December 31, 2026.
How it resolves
The market resolves to Yes if Iran officially recognizes the State of Israel between market creation and December 31, 2026, at 11:59 PM ET. A mere announcement of intentions does not qualify; formal diplomatic recognition is required. The market resolves to No if formal recognition does not occur within the specified timeframe. Official government information serves as the primary resolution source, alongside a consensus of credible reporting.
Key dates
- Resolution deadline: — Deadline for official recognition to take place
Resolution source
Official government information or a consensus of credible reporting
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
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