Will Bangladesh recognize Israel by December 31?
Last captured price
1.25¢
±0¢ · 24h
Implied probability 1.25%
$17.2K total volume · YES/NO
Low gotcha risk
Gotcha risk — resolution-rule assessment
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The market has a clear binary resolution criterion requiring formal diplomatic recognition of Israel as a state by Bangladesh before the December 31, 2026 deadline. The rules explicitly exclude mere statements of intention, reducing the risk of premature resolution on preliminary diplomatic talks. While the rules permit a consensus of credible reporting alongside official government sources, the requirement for formal recognition provides a high and verifiable bar, leaving limited room for interpretation.
- Wording ambiguity
- Low
- Source discretion
- Med
- Timing risk
- Low
- Exceptional clauses
- Low
Liquidity
Deep book at the daily check: a spread of 1¢ or less and at least $50K of orders within 5¢ of the mid.
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed country officially recognizes Israel as a state between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An announcement of intentions will not suffice to resolve this market to "Yes." Only a government's formal recognition of the State of Israel will count toward a “Yes” resolution for this market. The primary resolution source for this market will be official government information. However, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Rules history
Rules history is not displayed yet.
Market explained
This market measures whether Bangladesh will officially recognize Israel as a state by December 31, 2026. Resolution depends strictly on formal governmental recognition rather than mere announcements of intention.
How it resolves
The market resolves to Yes if Bangladesh officially and formally recognizes Israel as a state between market creation and December 31, 2026, at 11:59 PM ET. A mere announcement of intentions does not count toward a Yes resolution. The market resolves to No if formal recognition does not occur by this deadline. Resolution will be determined primarily using official government information, supplemented by a consensus of credible reporting.
Key dates
- End date: — The deadline by which Bangladesh must officially recognize Israel.
Resolution source
Official government information or a consensus of credible reporting
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
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