Will Malaysia recognize Israel by December 31?
Last captured price
2.55¢
±0¢ · 24h
Implied probability 2.55%
$15.1K total volume · YES/NO
Low gotcha risk
Gotcha risk — resolution-rule assessment
Show less
The resolution rules clearly define what constitutes an affirmative outcome, explicitly requiring formal recognition of Israel as a state rather than preliminary announcements of intention. While the title omits the year, the text provides a clear deadline of December 31, 2026, at 11:59 PM ET. For resolution verification, the market relies on official government information alongside a consensus of credible reporting, which introduces some minor discretion if reporting varies, but the core criteria remain straightforward and aligned with standard diplomatic actions.
- Wording ambiguity
- Low
- Source discretion
- Med
- Timing risk
- Low
- Exceptional clauses
- Low
Liquidity
Deep book at the daily check: a spread of 1¢ or less and at least $50K of orders within 5¢ of the mid.
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed country officially recognizes Israel as a state between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An announcement of intentions will not suffice to resolve this market to "Yes." Only a government's formal recognition of the State of Israel will count toward a “Yes” resolution for this market. The primary resolution source for this market will be official government information. However, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Rules history
Rules history is not displayed yet.
Market explained
This market measures whether Malaysia officially recognizes Israel as a state by the end of 2026. The market requires a formal act of recognition, not just an announcement of intent.
How it resolves
The market resolves Yes if Malaysia officially recognizes Israel as a state between the market's creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. An announcement of intentions is not sufficient for a Yes resolution; only a government's formal recognition of the State of Israel counts. The market resolves No if Malaysia does not officially recognize Israel as a state by the specified deadline. The primary resolution source is official government information. A consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Key dates
- Market close date: — Recognition must occur by this date and time (ET).
Resolution source
official government information
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-2.5-flash ·
Community forecast
Community forecasting arrives with the forecast tools.