Will Indonesia recognize Israel by December 31?
Last captured price
3.5¢
±0¢ · 24h
Implied probability 3.5%
$27.1K total volume · YES/NO
Low gotcha risk
Gotcha risk — resolution-rule assessment
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The market establishes clear criteria requiring formal, official recognition of the State of Israel by Indonesia, explicitly stating that preliminary announcements of intent do not qualify for a positive resolution. While the question title omits the year, the written rules establish a precise deadline of December 31, 2026, at 11:59 PM ET. Outcome verification relies on official government releases alongside a consensus of credible media reporting, which leaves some latitude if diplomatic steps are informal, but formal bilateral recognition is generally a definitive, widely documented international event.
- Wording ambiguity
- Low
- Source discretion
- Med
- Timing risk
- Low
- Exceptional clauses
- Low
Liquidity
Deep book at the daily check: a spread of 1¢ or less and at least $50K of orders within 5¢ of the mid.
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed country officially recognizes Israel as a state between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An announcement of intentions will not suffice to resolve this market to "Yes." Only a government's formal recognition of the State of Israel will count toward a “Yes” resolution for this market. The primary resolution source for this market will be official government information. However, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Rules history
Rules history is not displayed yet.
Market explained
This market measures whether Indonesia officially recognizes Israel as a state by December 31, 2026. Merely announcing intentions does not qualify.
How it resolves
The market resolves to Yes if the Indonesian government formally recognizes the State of Israel between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. An announcement of intentions alone does not suffice for a Yes resolution. The market resolves to No if formal recognition does not occur by the deadline. The resolution is determined primarily through official government information, supplemented by a consensus of credible reporting.
Key dates
- Resolution deadline: — The formal recognition must occur by 11:59 PM ET on this date.
Resolution source
Official government information, with a consensus of credible reporting also used
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
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