Will Iraq recognize Israel by December 31?
Last captured price
4.2¢
±0¢ · 24h
Implied probability 4.2%
$15.4K total volume · YES/NO
Low gotcha risk
Gotcha risk — resolution-rule assessment
Show less
The market has straightforward resolution criteria requiring formal diplomatic recognition of Israel as a state rather than mere expressions of intent. Resolution relies primarily on official government announcements, with a consensus of credible news reporting permitted as a backup. The deadline is clearly specified as December 31, 2026, at 11:59 PM ET, though participants should note the specific year designated in the rules since it is omitted from the title.
- Wording ambiguity
- Low
- Source discretion
- Med
- Timing risk
- Low
- Exceptional clauses
- Low
Liquidity
Deep book at the daily check: a spread of 1¢ or less and at least $50K of orders within 5¢ of the mid.
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed country officially recognizes Israel as a state between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An announcement of intentions will not suffice to resolve this market to "Yes." Only a government's formal recognition of the State of Israel will count toward a “Yes” resolution for this market. The primary resolution source for this market will be official government information. However, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Rules history
Rules history is not displayed yet.
Market explained
This market measures whether Iraq will officially grant diplomatic recognition to Israel as a state by December 31, 2026.
How it resolves
The market resolves to Yes if Iraq officially recognizes Israel as a state between market creation and December 31, 2026, at 11:59 PM ET. Only a formal recognition by the government qualifies; an announcement of mere intentions does not suffice. The market resolves to No if such official recognition does not occur within the designated timeframe. Resolution is determined by official government information, supplemented by a consensus of credible reporting.
Key dates
- Resolution deadline: — Deadline for Iraq to officially recognize Israel.
Resolution source
Official government information or a consensus of credible reporting
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
Community forecast
Community forecasting arrives with the forecast tools.