Will Afghanistan recognize Israel by December 31?
Last captured price
2.85¢
±0¢ · 24h
Implied probability 2.85%
$40.5K total volume · YES/NO
Medium gotcha risk
Gotcha risk — resolution-rule assessment
Show less
The market clarifies that resolution requires formal diplomatic recognition rather than mere announcements of intent, and specifies an end date of December 31, 2026, which is not mentioned in the title. Resolution relies primarily on official government announcements but permits a consensus of credible reporting without specifying precedence or named outlets, leaving final determination to decider judgment if reporting is mixed or unofficial statements emerge.
- Wording ambiguity
- Low
- Source discretion
- High
- Timing risk
- Low
- Exceptional clauses
- Low
Liquidity
Deep book at the daily check: a spread of 1¢ or less and at least $50K of orders within 5¢ of the mid.
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed country officially recognizes Israel as a state between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An announcement of intentions will not suffice to resolve this market to "Yes." Only a government's formal recognition of the State of Israel will count toward a “Yes” resolution for this market. The primary resolution source for this market will be official government information. However, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Rules history
Rules history is not displayed yet.
Market explained
This market measures whether Afghanistan officially recognizes Israel as a state by December 31, 2026.
How it resolves
The market resolves to Yes if Afghanistan officially recognizes Israel as a state between market creation and December 31, 2026, at 11:59 PM ET. An announcement of intentions does not suffice; only formal government recognition counts. The market resolves to No if such official recognition does not occur within the specified timeframe. Official government information serves as the primary resolution source, though a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Key dates
- Resolution deadline: — The recognition must occur by this date and time.
Resolution source
Official government information, or a consensus of credible reporting
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
Community forecast
Community forecasting arrives with the forecast tools.